Pay attention to | observe PPI and be alert to the rise of bulk goods again!

According to the data recently released by the National Bureau of statistics, in September, the ex factory price of industrial producers (hereinafter referred to as PPI) increased by 10.7% year-on-year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the previous month; CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, and the increase fell in April. At the same time, the purchase price of industrial producers increased by 14.3% year-on-year and 1.1% month on month. From January to September, on average, PPI increased by 6.7% over the same period last year, and the purchase prices of industrial producers increased by 9.3%.

The reporter learned that among the 40 industrial categories surveyed by the National Bureau of statistics, 36 prices rose in September, an increase of 4 over the previous month. The price increases of major industries have expanded, among which the prices of coal mining and washing industry have increased by 74.9% year-on-year, an increase of 17.8 percentage points over the previous month; The price of oil and gas exploitation industry increased by 43.6% year-on-year, expanding by 2.3 percentage points; The prices of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 40.5% year-on-year, expanding by 5.2 percentage points; The price of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 34.9% year-on-year, expanding by 0.8 percentage points; The prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing increased by 25.5% year-on-year, an increase of 1.5 percentage points; The price of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 24.6% year-on-year, expanding by 2.8 percentage points.

In terms of classification, in September, affected by factors such as the rise of product prices in coal and some high energy consuming industries, the rise of industrial product prices continued to expand. Among them, the price of means of production rose by 14.2%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points; The price of means of subsistence increased by 0.4%, and the increase was expanded by 0.1 percentage points. The price rise of means of production is the main factor driving the rise of PPI.

In the face of the price trend of bulk goods, Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the economic policy committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, analyzed China's economic situation in the first three quarters of this year. He believed that China's economy had a good start this year, and China's GDP increased by 12.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year. From the perspective of price trend, CPI rebounded weakly and PPI rose rapidly, forming a rare scissors gap. The domestic employment situation this year is generally stable, the international balance of payments is basically balanced, and the RMB exchange rate is stable, but the growth of investment demand is weak, and the recovery of consumer demand is weak. External demand grew rapidly, but the growth rate fell quarter by quarter. Industrial growth accelerated, and equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew well. The service industry maintained growth, and the business activity index of the service industry was in the high boom range. The monetary and financial environment is stable, the monetary policy is stable, the interest rate level rises moderately, and the financial market is stable, but the potential risks are rising.

It can be seen that in the recent global commodity prices, energy prices are rising in an all-round way, and metal prices are also rising. Analyzing the short-term reasons, Xu Hongcai believes that the first is the large-scale substitution of material consumption for service consumption during the epidemic, promoting the normalization of Global trade in goods and industrial production, and promoting the rise of commodity prices from the demand side. Secondly, the epidemic has blocked the supply chain and pushed up prices from the supply side. Thirdly, the shortage of international shipping capacity and the rise of international shipping prices have promoted the high operation of relevant commodity prices. Finally, international trade is negatively affected by bilateral and multilateral relations.

The reporter learned from relevant industrial enterprises that affected by the tight supply in the coal market and strong industrial demand, power outages and power rationing occurred in many places in China in September. A number of measures to ensure supply and increase production have been introduced at the national level, but some production capacity is affected by heavy rainfall in main domestic producing areas, coupled with the autumn inspection of Daqin line, the market supply is still tight. As the market is expected to continue to be active, coal prices still have room to rise, and many end users have stepped up procurement this month.

Fu Linghui, director of the Department of comprehensive statistics of national economy of the National Bureau of statistics, responded at the press conference of the state information office on October 18 that with the gradual implementation and effectiveness of relevant measures, the tight supply of coal and electricity will be alleviated and the constraints on economic operation will be reduced. From the situation in September, the growth rate of power production also accelerated. Generally speaking, the tight energy supply is phased, and the impact on the economy is controllable.

Insiders pointed out that in the past period of time, the policy level has been eager to alleviate the national power crisis. Due to the seasonal decline in demand and the new power demand pricing scheme, the energy supply crisis may ease slightly in October. However, as the power demand rises again, the power shortage does not rule out the recurrence in winter, and the relevant bulk goods may also increase or operate at a high level within a certain period of time. Therefore, the relevant departments should not only alleviate the crisis from the supply and demand level, but also strengthen market supervision to prevent speculation and hoarding.

Source: China trade news reporter Zhang Muxi

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