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  • To foreign trade people! Review Inamori's 42 life wisdom
    On August 30, Kazuo Inamori, a famous industrialist and honorary president of Kyocera, known as the "God of management" of Japan, died at the age of 90. Inamori Kazuo founded two Fortune 500 companies before the age of 52. At the peak of his career, he suffered from gastric cancer. After treatment, he converted to Buddhism. At the age of 78, he was ordered to turn the bankrupt JAL into a profit. In just one year, he led JAL to become the first in the industry. Kazuo Inamori's success, to a large extent, can not be separated from the efforts of individuals, or from Kazuo Inamori's philosophy of life - especially serious life. Let's review his autobiography "living especially seriously" and experience Inamori's 42 life wisdom. Live a colorful and fruitful life Looking back on my life, since the founding of Kyocera, I have worked tirelessly to build an excellent enterprise that allows employees to work with peace of mind. Thanks to the help of all parties, the enterprise has grown rapidly. Now, the sales of Kyocera has exceeded 1 trillion yen, and the sales of KDDI (Note: Japan's second largest mobile operator) has exceeded 3 trillion yen. Many employees not only get material security, but also have dreams for the future and work hard every day. However, is it the ultimate goal of my life to make the enterprise bigger and stronger? When I asked myself again, I thought the conclusion was negative. If someone asks me, "what is the purpose of life?" I will answer without hesitation: "temper your soul." No matter how much wealth, status and reputation they have accumulated, they cannot be brought to that world. When death comes, there is only one thing that can be taken away, that is "soul". At the age of 74, I thought that death did not mean the end. Give up all the things created in this world and start a new journey with your own soul. If so, then the purpose of life is to die with a slightly better and nobler soul than at birth. All kinds of tests we have encountered are trials of our souls. Sometimes, we will deviate from the right path. At this time, we should seriously reflect and continue to work hard. It is in this process of unremitting efforts that the purpose of our life is reflected. Some people may think that life is more suffering than joy. Why did you encounter so many hardships? They may even feel resentful. However, it is at this time that we should have the idea that suffering is an opportunity for us to temper our souls. What is the way of life? My thinking is: in the long journey of life, there are peaks and valleys, and there are ups and downs. We should step by step and move forward in a down-to-earth manner. In this process, we will temper our soul and improve our minds. We should regard life as a training ground for the soul, and make unremitting efforts and efforts. In this way, as travelers of life, we can truly feel the meaning of life and live a colorful and fruitful life. The following are the classic quotations from "living especially seriously", which we have compiled into 42 pieces of Inamori's life wisdom. 42 life wisdom 1.About leaders one Operators themselves must take the lead in setting an example, work hard, operate seriously, keep improving and persist. In the process of improving your mind, you can expand your business. First of all, we should temper our minds to form an excellent personality. two If you really want to do a good job in the company, make the employees proud and feel the joy of work, then you must devote all your efforts to the cause, make self sacrifice and devote yourself to the happiness of the employees and the development of the company. Without such dedication, one should not be an operator. three Whether employees have a sense of pride in their work depends on whether the operators have a correct understanding of this work and whether the operators have lofty ideas. four The strength of the company lies in the hearts of mutual trust and the bonds between them. five If it is said that "one must choose between ability and character", then I will answer unequivocally: "character is the most important." six Because of the different personalities of the people who control it, ability can develop in both good and bad ways. So personality is more important than ability. seven From a long-term perspective, compared with those so-called outstanding talents who are half hearted, those who are slightly retarded but work hard can achieve great work. eight Another important point is whether this person has an incomparable love for his work and the company, and whether he has the dedication of hard work and dedication. nine People who are resilient and willing to work hard, through long-term work, not only temper their personality, but also improve their ability. In their later years, they will bloom big flowers. I think that's the so-called life. ten If you want to do a good job of the company and improve the profits of the enterprise, you must make customers, traders, shareholders and all people around the enterprise satisfied and happy. eleven If you want to succeed and make profits, you must have a good heart to do your best for others. twelve Do your best for the society and the world. If you want to do a good job in the company, altruism is indispensable. thirteen For those who are serious and honest, God will surely take care of them. If you want to live a beautiful life, first of all, your heart must be filled with beautiful thoughts, and you must work and live seriously. 2.About work fourteen If you hate the injustice of society and always hold this attitude, your life will not be smooth. fifteen The road of life is long. People have to live and work in the real world for decades. Therefore, it is very important to have an infatuated attitude towards the work you are engaged in after stepping into society. If you love your work, you will pour out a force to urge people to continue to study hard. At the same time, if we continue to make unremitting efforts and tirelessly study, ponder and innovate, we may reach the realm of being known as celebrities and masters. sixteen Don't wait for the boss to tell you what to do. Instead, every worker should understand the meaning of the work and consciously muster all the energy to do a good job. Otherwise, no results can be achieved. seventeen If there is such a thing as luck, it can only be caught in adversity. eighteen What you think in your heart will lead your life to a good direction or a bad direction. Therefore, in order to live a better life, we should constantly think about the correct attitude we should have. nineteen When I stepped into the society, the first company I worked in taught me that no matter how bad the environment is, no matter how desperate the situation is, if I just complain, escape from reality, hesitate and hesitate, my life will never change. twenty I think that the happiness of a person's life depends on whether you take the initiative to make efforts to like the job you were given at the beginning of your life. twenty-one As the saying goes, "only when you like it can you become an expert". There is also a saying "persistence is victory". If you love your work hard, persevere and keep improving, you can exert great power. People who are known as geniuses, celebrities and experts are the result of unremitting efforts to do seemingly monotonous work for many years. I believe that only those who continue to work hard can achieve outstanding success. twenty-two If you don't really like the monotonous and simple work, you can't work tirelessly throughout your life. At the same time, to like your work, there is no other way but to work hard. That is to say, if you cherish your life, then you have to keep working hard and take the initiative to like what you are doing. twenty-three What kind of work is worth liking? For young people around the age of 20 whose values and outlook on life have not yet been finalized, they can not make a correct judgment. It is childish and ridiculous to think that you can make a decision immediately after you know why. Don't be self righteous, but try to like the job you happen to meet in your destiny and try your best to do it well. This is the right answer to life. 3.About enterprise operation twenty-four "Only those who can completely abandon their selfishness, including their own lives, can achieve great things." This sentence condenses the most important thinking, which is applicable not only to the economic sector, but also to all walks of life. I firmly believe that the necessary condition for a leader lies in self-discipline and public service. twenty-five For business operators, the so-called business talents and talents, as well as the strategies and tactics needed in conducting business activities, have high requirements. In addition, in a technology-based enterprise, technicians must first have excellent talents. twenty-six In my opinion, modesty is the first of the personality qualities that leaders should possess. The more talented you are, the more modest and honest you should be. To put it further, we should not put too much emphasis on ourselves. In other words, leaders should be impartial, put personal interests aside for the time being, and must think about what collective happiness is and take action for it. twenty-seven As long as I have the opportunity, I will take "Japan first, the world first" as the slogan and constantly emphasize it, and take great pains to improve the aspirations and morale of all employees, including myself. twenty-eight There is only one way for a nameless and weak enterprise to survive, that is, to decisively accept products that other companies can not do and refuse to do. twenty-nine Always use the "future progressive tense" to view your ability. "You can't do it now, but you can do it in the future!" As long as we believe in this, exert our tenacity, challenge the limit, and persevere, the final problem will be solved. thirty I have always taken "pursuing the happiness of all employees in both material and spiritual aspects" as the main purpose of my business. thirty-one Before talking about business talents, talents and talents, it is most important that the operator, as the leader of the enterprise, has the corresponding noble personality. thirty-two No one who puts himself first is fit to be a leader. thirty-three In the field of enterprise management, no matter what group, people who want to be "leaders" should not consider their own interests too much. We need to show courage. Even if we sacrifice our personal interests, we should give priority to the development of the team we lead. thirty-four Like "tenacious ties", people's hearts are the most reliable link between people. "Once we form an alliance, we will sacrifice our lives." In my opinion, there are such strong interpersonal relationships in the world. 4.About life thirty-five I set my life as 80 years. I divided it into 20 years after birth, which is the preparation period before stepping into society. thirty-six Thinking and doing good deeds can bring good results; Thinking and doing bad things will bring bad results. thirty-seven When I thought of this step, I decided to pour more enthusiasm into the activities of making contributions to society. thirty-eight The real purpose of life is to cultivate a compassionate, kind and beautiful heart. Even if it is insignificant, it should try its best for the society and the world to temper its soul. thirty-nine To temper one's soul and make one's soul beautiful, elegant and full of compassion is the purpose of life. Beyond that, life has no other purpose. forty "When you live in the world, you must make some contributions to society and the world. You can give people a kind word, treat people with a smile, and so on. Even small things can be done, so that people around you can feel 'it's good to have you!'. This kind of life attitude is very important and the value of life lies in it." forty-one There is only one life. We must take a sincere and serious attitude with the word "special". This continuous and unremitting efforts can make life better, cultivate noble personality, and temper the innate soul more beautiful. forty-two If you want to live a happy and beautiful life, first you must purify your mind a little. In this way, as the external reflection of your mind, your life will be happy and beautiful. Source: import and export manager In this article, except for the pictures indicating the source, the rest are from open channels on the Internet, and the source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 09/01

  • Us "chip act" disrupts global supply chain
    A few days ago, the US "chip bill" was passed by both houses of Congress. This bill has undergone many revisions and adjustments, and was finally named the chip and science act of 2022. It will be formally enacted after US President Biden signed it on August 9. The total amount of the bill is US $280 billion, and it will be implemented over five years. It is worth noting that the bill not only attempts to attract semiconductor enterprises to set up factories in the United States through investment subsidies, but also attempts to prevent semiconductor enterprises from increasing production in China by restricting the qualification of subsidies. Suppress Chinese chip technology enterprises, coerce chip giants such as TSMC to invest and set up factories in the United States, and try to form a small circle of "chip Quartet alliance"... A series of "wall building" and "decoupling" practices of the United States are full of hegemonic logic and cold war thinking, which seriously disrupts the global chip supply chain. The product of compromise between the two parties The chip and science act of 2022 is 1054 pages long. The New York Times reported that the bill integrates economic and national security policies and aims to enhance the competitiveness of the US technology and chip industry. The report summarizes the main contents of the bill: first, provide financial support of about US $52.7 billion to the semiconductor industry, provide investment tax credit of US $24 billion to enterprises, and encourage enterprises to research, develop and manufacture chips in the United States; Second, we will provide about US $200 billion in scientific research funding in the next few years, focusing on supporting cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics and quantum computing. "The chip and science act of 2022 is the product of compromise between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party after a long-term game between the Senate and the house of Representatives." In an interview with this newspaper, Feng Weijiang, Secretary General of the national global strategy think tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, sorted out the process of passing the bill: in June 2021, the US Senate passed the US innovation and competition act with a scale of US $250 billion, which was intended to strengthen domestic scientific and technological research and development and compete with China, but the bill was shelved in the house of Representatives. On February 4 this year, the US House of Representatives passed the US manufacturing opportunities creation and technological excellence and economic strength act of 2022 (that is, the US competition act of 2022 of the house of Representatives); On March 28, the U.S. Senate passed the 2022 U.S. create opportunities for manufacturing, technological leadership and economic strength Act (i.e. the Senate version of the 2022 U.S. Competition Act), which includes the chip and 5g emergency funding plan, the endless frontier act, the 2021 strategic competition act, the ensuring the future of the United States act, and the challenge response act. In this context, the Senate and the house of representatives need to negotiate to eliminate the differences between the two versions of the bill and launch a compromise version recognized by both parties before it can finally be submitted to the president for approval. From July 27 to 28, the Senate and the house of Representatives passed the chip and science act of 2022 with a scale of US $280 billion. It is worth noting that the bill also contains a clause on "competition with China". The Wall Street Journal reported that the bill stipulates that if a semiconductor company that has established factories in the United States also builds or expands advanced semiconductor manufacturing plants in China or other potentially "unfriendly countries", the company will not receive subsidies under the bill. "This bill is a manifestation that the United States continues to pan politicize and pan security economic and technological issues." Jiang Tianjiao, an associate professor of Fudan University's Development Research Institute, told this newspaper that the United States tried to support the local chip industry manufacturing and strengthen chip technology research and development through the bill, especially focusing on the research and development of innovative, high-tech and leading chips, so as to seize the leading position in the global chip industry chain in the future. In addition, some provisions of the bill restrict the chip enterprises to carry out normal economic, trade and investment activities in China, forcing relevant enterprises to choose sides between China and the United States, reflecting the deep-rooted zero sum game thinking of some people in the United States. In addition, the United States uses the so-called "chip diplomacy" to create a small circle, trying to exclude Chinese Mainland from the global chip industry chain. "In terms of chip manufacturing, the bill reflects that in the United States, the national logic of 'safety oriented' prevails over the market logic of 'efficiency oriented'." Feng Weijiang said that the bill emphasizes providing huge subsidies to the chip industry in the United States, which is a typical differential industry support policy. Some of them restrict the normal scientific and technological cooperation between China and the United States, and use government forces to forcibly change the international division of labor in chip manufacturing. These practices violate the market law, will distort the global semiconductor supply chain, and disrupt the normal order of international trade. Threatening chip Enterprises The chip and science act of 2022 was passed by the Senate and the house of Representatives, which is the result of multiple factors. Feng Weijiang believes that against the background of the epidemic, the global chip production chain has been interrupted, and the United States has a serious chip shortage problem, forcing the two parties to discuss a compromise plan. After a long period of "bargaining", the differences between the two parties were basically resolved and consensus was reached on the core content of the bill. If the bill cannot be passed before the congressional recess in August, after a month's recess, the bill will face the disturbance of the mid-term election in November, and it is likely to miss the window of passage. Under the "deadline effect", the US Congress, especially the Democrats in the Senate, decided to focus on the chip issue and promote the passage of the bill. At the height of the debate between the two parties, the American Semiconductor Industry Association and the Oxford Economic Research Institute released a report, pointing out that the semiconductor industry has a huge pulling effect on the American economy. For every worker employed by the semiconductor industry in the United States, it can indirectly support 6.7 jobs. The chip and science act of 2022 will invest US $50 billion to build a chip factory, which means that the semiconductor industry will increase 523000 jobs and US $76.3 billion of GDP between 2021 and 2026 alone. "The bill has been brewing for a long time, and its rapid passage is not unexpected. Under the banner of reshaping the position of the United States in the global chip supply chain, improving the scientific and technological innovation capability of the United States in strategic emerging fields, and enhancing the strategic competitive advantage of the United States in China, the bill has prompted the two parties to reach an agreement." Jiang Tianjiao said that in order to promote the passage of the bill, the US government has used multiple means: borrowing the epidemic to impact the global chip supply chain and the shortage of auto chips, and wantonly playing up the threat theory of Chinese chips; Schemer, the initiator of the internal borrowing bill, has been promoted to the majority leader of the Senate. The chip bill can not only provide thousands of new jobs for the United States, but also enable the United States to regain its leadership in science and technology; After that, the American chip companies persuaded the Democratic Party of the United States to abandon the tradition of government non intervention in the economy, and then won the cross party support of 17 Republicans, including Republican Party leader McConnell, through the exchange of interests. With the chip bill as the locomotive, the huge science bill was passed together. In recent years, in order to reverse the competitive disadvantage of the chip industry in the world, the United States has acted arbitrarily to suppress the development of chip industry in other countries. "First, restrict China's access to and development of advanced chip manufacturing and design technologies through bilateral or multilateral means. For example, put pressure on the Dutch government to ask ASMA, the world's largest lithographic machine enterprise, to expand the scope of its sales ban to China; and put together the so-called 'chip Quartet' (the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China) To engage in "semiconductor barriers" that exclude Chinese Mainland; To restrict Huawei's business activities in the world and "choke" its manufacturing to achieve the goal of abolishing its advanced chip design capability. The second is to coerce and try to control the leading enterprises in the semiconductor industry. For example, enterprises such as TSMC, Samsung Electronics, micron technology, Western Digital, Lianhua electronics, SK Hynix and Sun tech electronics are required to hand over semiconductor supply chain data, and enterprises such as TSMC are forced to invest and set up factories in the United States. " Feng Weijiang believes that these bullying acts have impacted the stability of the global chip industry chain and supply chain, disrupted market expectations, reduced the confidence and level of industry investment, increased the cost and risk of industry production and operation, copied a relatively advanced chip manufacturing industry for the United States at the expense of the global efficiency and profits of multinational enterprises in the semiconductor field, and hindered the innovation and development of the global semiconductor industry. Destroy the chip supply chain The US "Capitol Hill" believes that given that enterprises need a long time to build new facilities and increase production, the bill is unlikely to have an immediate practical effect on the domestic supply chain of the United States. "Chip R & D itself is a time-consuming and laborious process, and it is not achieved overnight. After the implementation of the bill, it may not have a significant impact on the development of the chip industry in the United States in the short term. The specific effect remains to be observed and is full of uncertainty. The large-scale subsidy of the United States for chips is also a behavior that distorts the market rules, which may eventually lead to the surplus of the chip industry and even force the replacement of chips to be sold Now. " Jiang Tianjiao said that at the time of the rise of the semiconductor industry, the United States once almost covered all the global semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Today, the United States has only 12% of global semiconductor production capacity. This huge contrast has become an important reason for some people in the United States to try to reshape their core position in the global semiconductor manufacturing field through the bill, and then curb the development of China's semiconductor industry. However, the root cause of the decline of the US semiconductor manufacturing industry lies in itself. To curb, deprive and damage the legitimate development rights and interests of other countries will only harm others and ourselves. According to the analysis of the center for strategic international studies, a us think tank, in the complex and highly interdependent global value chain, the semiconductor enterprises of the United States and China have long been deeply integrated. To fully localize the supply chain, it will pay a huge economic and technological cost. Therefore, it is very impractical for the global semiconductor industry to completely "decouple". Peter wen nick, CEO of ASMC, recently warned: "the world cannot ignore the fact that the semiconductor manufacturing capacity of Chinese Mainland is crucial to meet the global market demand." How should China respond to the hostile pressure of the United States on China's chip manufacturing industry? "As far as the chip industry itself is concerned, China should continue to increase its investment in advanced chip manufacturing and design technology." Feng Weijiang pointed out that China should pay more attention to the "science" part of the bill, pay close attention to the progress of Frontier Science and technology fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics and quantum computing, which are mainly funded by the bill, pay attention to the guiding role of "competition policy" rather than "industrial policy" in these fields, and vigorously encourage scientific and technological progress and its support for advanced technology industries. "The United States has always claimed to be a supporter and defender of the free market concept, and has even used this as an excuse to attack and smear other countries. Now, in order to maintain its hegemony, the United States has used this act to let many international semiconductor enterprises choose sides, which shows its hypocrisy." Jiang Tianjiao believes that, on the one hand, China should, through various means, expose and criticize the hegemonic acts of the United States that violate the market law and undermine the global chip supply chain, so as to win more support and cooperation from the international community; On the other hand, China should maintain its strategic strength, more respect the laws of the market and industry, strive to promote scientific and Technological Development and industrial progress, and continue to increase efforts to support the development of the semiconductor industry. Source:People's Daily Overseas Edition In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 08/17

  • Foreign media: international well-known enterprises are optimistic about the Chinese market
    According to the report on the website of the Australian Financial Review on July 27, Jacob stauseholm, CEO of Rio Tinto mining group, said that at a time when the developed economies are facing inflation and recession risks, the heavy reliance on Chinese customers may make the performance of large mining companies better than that of other industries. "The rising inflation in the west is putting pressure on real income and purchasing power. This is forcing the government and central bank to take actions, and such actions further aggravate the risk of potential recession," staushelm said on the evening of the 27th "This will obviously affect us. However, it is necessary to point out that China has not experienced such inflationary pressure. Therefore, it has more room to continue to adopt supportive policy stance and introduce additional easing measures to stimulate economic growth," he said It is reported that in the last six months, about 52% of the revenue of Rio Tinto mining came from China. Under such circumstances, stausheim said he believed that Rio Tinto could ride out the current economic turmoil. According to a report on the Bloomberg News Agency website on July 28, according to people who have been leading Volkswagen's business in China since 2019, Volkswagen must continue to focus on China if it is to continue to become one of the world's major automakers. Feng Sihan will step down as CEO of Volkswagen Group (China) at the end of this month. He said that he has witnessed a "fundamental paradigm shift" in the automotive industry, which has forced global automakers, including Volkswagen, to shift their focus to China. At present, China is the largest automobile market in the world. According to the report, Feng Sihan said in an interview that Volkswagen "quite definitely predicted" that China's auto sales would increase to 28 million to 30 million by 2030, accounting for about 30% to 35% of the global auto market. China is an important market for Volkswagen, accounting for about 40% of its global shipments in the first quarter of this year. Source:Reference News In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 08/15

  • Inflation is rising, and South Korea's recovery road is difficult
    Recently, the posts on the topic of "no spending challenge" on the Korean Internet have become more and more popular, and the topic participants have revealed their days and achievements of achieving zero spending in the past week through social media platforms. Years of high inflation have led more and more young people in South Korea to cut their daily expenses to the extreme. On the other hand, the export growth of South Korea, which is dominated by an export-oriented economy, began to slow down, and the inventory of its main export commodity chips even reached the highest increase in the past six years. According to the data released by the Korean statistics office, the consumer price index (CPI) of South Korea in July was 108.74, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, a new high of 23 years and 8 months. In June, the leading economic index of South Korea was 98.87, the 13th consecutive month on month decline. Generally speaking, the month on month decline of the index means that the economic growth may slow down in the future. The index below 100 indicates that the economy may enter a downward situation in the future. The slowdown in export growth, soaring prices, and pessimistic consumer psychology... These factors add up to a great increase in the risk of economic downturn, and it can be seen that the road to recovery is bumpy. High inflation spread across the whole line There is such a phenomenon in South Korea today, that is, the economy of convenience stores is getting hotter. The low-priced goods in convenience stores attract a large number of customers, and many consumers reduce their expenses by purchasing goods directly. Behind the hot economy of convenience stores is the true reflection of the general contraction of daily consumption of the Korean people. At present, the domestic prices in South Korea are rising, especially the soaring prices of agricultural products and petroleum products, which have raised the prices and seriously restricted the purchasing power of the people. In June, the South Korean consumer psychology index (CCSI) was 86, which also fell for three consecutive months. We should know that the consumer psychology index below 100 means that the consumer psychology is pessimistic. The expected inflation rate reflects the consumer's expectation of price increase in the coming year. On July 27, the "consumer trend survey in July" released by the Bank of Korea showed that the expected inflation rate of South Korea in July was 4.7%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over June. Both the expected inflation rate and the month on month increase rate were the highest since relevant statistics began in 2008. In this regard, the relevant person in charge of the Bank of Korea said that the increase of CPI in South Korea by more than 6% was the main reason for the high expected inflation rate, and most consumers believed that prices would not improve significantly in the second half of the year. Slow growth of foreign trade exports South Korea's export growth slowed down for months. In June, South Korea's exports increased only 5.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped to single digits for the first time in 16 months; Imports increased by 19.4% year-on-year, and the trade deficit continued to expand. In the first seven months of this year, the ROK has had a trade deficit for five months, and this year may have its first annual trade deficit in 14 years. Chip products are one of the most important sources of income for South Korea's exports. As a large memory chip producer, the sales of memory chips produced by South Korea are all over the world, and it is also an important force to support the strong exchange rate of the Korean won. This year, the reduced demand for memory chips in the international market has aggravated the expansion of the trade deficit of South Korea. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics of the Republic of Korea on July 29, the national chip inventory of the Republic of Korea surged 79.8% year-on-year in June, the highest increase in nearly six years. In addition, the growth of chip production and shipment in South Korea slowed down. Not long ago, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, the world's two largest memory chip manufacturers, warned that chip sales might weaken in the future. The backlog of chips in South Korea not only indicates the poor demand of the memory chip market, but also reflects that the export prospects of South Korea are also worrying. There have been examples before. In 2016, South Korea also experienced a large backlog of chip stocks, resulting in a two-year downturn in South Korea's exports. In view of the situation of the chip market, the Korean government announced a "semiconductor superpower strategy" on July 21, with a view to guiding enterprises to complete 340 trillion won of semiconductor investment by 2026. It is worth noting that 60% of the chips exported by South Korea will be exported to China in 2021, and the importance of the Chinese market is self-evident. At present, South Korea is facing great pressure from the United States to participate in the "chip Quartet alliance". If it is not carefully selected, it may affect the development of bilateral trade between China and South Korea in the future. The ROK government has expressed that it does not agree with the view that the "India Pacific economic framework" (IPEF) and the "chip Quartet alliance" are intended to contain China and will continue to deepen economic and trade cooperation with China. As Zhao Lijian, spokesman of the Chinese foreign ministry, said, in the process of the development of bilateral relations, both sides have gained tremendous benefits and realized each other's achievements. In July this year, substantive progress was made in the second phase of the China ROK free trade agreement negotiations. For South Korea, to maximize its national interests, it should firmly support the principles of free trade and multilateralism in order to build an open trade country. Source:China Business News Network In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 08/08

  • Small, medium-sized and micro enterprises with variable strain inject new vitality into the counter trend growth of foreign trade
    Although the foreign trade export industry faced multiple pressures from home and abroad in the first half of this year, China's foreign trade still delivered a brilliant answer. According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, in the first half of 2022, China's total import and export value reached US $3.08 trillion, an increase of 10.3% year-on-year; Exports reached US $1.73 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. Among them, the contribution of small, medium and micro export enterprises should not be underestimated. Recently, XTransfer and the commercial industry committee of the China Council for the promotion of international trade (CCPIT) released the report on the export trade (B2B) index of small, medium and micro enterprises in the first half of 2022, which pointed out that China's foreign trade achieved steady progress in the first half of 2022 amid adversity, and it is expected that the second half of the year will further accelerate and improve quality. At the same time, with the deepening of RCEP cooperation and the implementation of policies, the national industrial chain supply chain in RCEP region will realize complementary advantages and deep integration, which will stimulate the new vitality of foreign trade development. It is expected that in the second half of the year, China's small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises will release greater development potential for RCEP regional export trade. The trend of stabilization and recovery is obvious At the same time, the "leading index of China's foreign trade exports in the first half of 2022" released shows that the overall trend of China's leading index of foreign trade exports in the first half of 2022 is consistent with that of last year, and has increased significantly compared with the first half of 2021. The report said that since April, affected by a series of factors such as the epidemic, China's leading index of foreign trade exports was under pressure for a time, but it rebounded significantly in June, sending a positive signal. On the one hand, the domestic epidemic was quickly controlled, the supply chain was restored, and the release of backlog demand strengthened the rebound to a certain extent; On the other hand, it is closely related to the intensive policies of stabilizing the economy and foreign trade; In addition, due to the more flexible management mechanism, small, medium-sized and micro foreign trade enterprises can adjust their business strategies in time to minimize the adverse impact. In B2B export trade, collection data often shows a trend before customs data and logistics data. According to the report, in the first half of the year, the collection volume of China's small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises increased by 15.3% year-on-year, higher than the year-on-year increase of 14.2% in the national export amount. The report believes that this shows the extraordinary resilience and strong adaptability of small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises in the face of external pressure. In addition, the report also shows that from the perspective of export destinations, the top three export volume of China's small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises in the first half of the year are: North America, the European Union and ASEAN. The trading partners with high export growth rate are the United States, Canada, Singapore, Italy, South Africa, the Philippines and so on. On the whole, the sustained high boom in China's exports to North America and ASEAN is an important driving force for the steady improvement of exports. In terms of export product categories, in major export countries, the export volume of transportation equipment, leather and its products increased the most, with a year-on-year increase of 38.2%. Medical precision instruments, metals and their products also increased significantly. RCEP dividends continue to be released Since the formal implementation and entry into force of the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP), China's small, medium-sized and micro foreign trade enterprises have increased their foreign trade exports to many trading partners in the RCEP region. The RCEP regional activity index of China's small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises' exports in the first half of 2022 shows that in the first half of the year, the number of small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises exporting to countries in the RCEP region increased by 23.1% year-on-year. This shows that since RCEP came into effect half a year ago, policy dividends have been gradually released, providing new opportunities for foreign trade enterprises to reduce tariff costs and seize the international market, and injecting a steady stream of new vitality into the development of China's foreign trade. The index is comprehensively evaluated from the three dimensions of average order quantity, average collection amount and average transaction frequency. The report points out that in the first half of 2022, the export RCEP regional activity index of small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises showed strong resilience, showing a steady upward trend against the background of the impact of the epidemic and the complex and severe international situation. In the first half of 2022, China's small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises' export receipts in RCEP region increased by 11.4% year-on-year, slightly lower than the overall increase of 15.3% in receipts. This is related to the fact that some countries in RCEP region were in the off-season of foreign trade business in the first half of the year due to the influence of traditional festivals such as Spring Festival and Eid al Fitr, which belongs to normal cyclical fluctuations. From the perspective of export destinations, the top three export volume of Chinese small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises in RCEP region are: South Korea, Japan, Vietnam; The top three growth rates are Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia. In terms of export product categories, exports to major exporting countries in RCEP region, transportation equipment and spare parts, leather and its products, and medical precision instruments increased significantly. Benefiting from lower labor costs, land costs and better local preferential policies, the manufacturing industry dominated by OEM is transferring to some countries in RCEP region, further boosting the demand for all kinds of spare parts and raw materials. The report predicts that in the second half of the year, China's small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises will release greater development potential for RCEP regional export trade. Source:China Business News Network In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 08/04

  • Japanese media: the trend of global interest rate hike may trigger a wave of corporate bankruptcy
    According to Nihon Keizai Shimbun on July 28, the number of zombie enterprises worldwide has increased. Worldwide, the number of enterprises with excess debt is increasing. Its characteristic is that the main business profit is less than the interest payable on the loan. In 2021, zombie enterprises accounted for 16%, the highest level since the financial crisis. Due to the long-term monetary easing policy of central banks, the number of zombie enterprises is increasing. Recently, the United States has accelerated the pace of raising interest rates, and many enterprises have been forced to the brink of bankruptcy. The trend of global interest rate hikes has raised concerns that the number of bankrupt enterprises will increase, and people are beginning to realize this economic risk factor. If an enterprise's EBIT reflecting the profitability of its main business is lower than the loan interest it pays for three consecutive years, and the enterprise has been in existence for more than 10 years, it is defined as an enterprise with excess debt. They are sometimes called zombie enterprises. Nihon Keizai Shimbun surveyed about 24500 listed non-financial enterprises in major countries in North America, Europe and the Asia Pacific region, and found that 3900 enterprises were zombie enterprises in 2021, accounting for about 16% of the total. Compared with 2007 before the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the proportion of zombie enterprises increased by about 6 percentage points. After the outbreak of the financial crisis, due to the implementation of monetary easing policies around the world, the proportion of zombie enterprises showed an upward trend. Even if the profitability of the main business decreases, because it is less difficult to raise funds from financial institutions and investors, enterprises can alleviate the daily shortage of funds by borrowing. After the outbreak of covid-19 in 2020, the proportion of zombie enterprises further increased. In order to alleviate the deterioration of business conditions caused by the epidemic, the central banks of various countries have increased their monetary easing policies, and more enterprises are more dependent on debt. By country and region, Canada has the highest proportion of zombie enterprises, accounting for 32%, followed by Australia (23%) and India (20%). In terms of quantity, there are more zombie enterprises in the United States (606) and the European Union (661). In Japan, many enterprises are cautious about borrowing, and zombie enterprises account for only 4%. Zombie enterprises account for about 20% in pharmaceutical products, materials and energy, information and communication, food and other industries. In terms of quantity, there are also many zombie enterprises in the electrical appliances and service industries. Nine out of ten zombie enterprises have an annual revenue of less than US $500million. Their debt scale is much larger than their ability to pay, and they "survive" in the case of poor performance. Since the beginning of this year, due to the tightening of monetary policies in various countries, coupled with people's concern about the slowdown of economic growth, investors and financial institutions have increased their awareness of avoiding risks, and the financing environment for enterprises has become severe. According to the data of rover, the scale of low rated corporate bonds issued by global enterprises in the second quarter of 2022 was about US $29.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 86%, the lowest quarterly value in recent 11 years. Banks' financing of low rated companies also decreased by 20% year-on-year. The phenomenon of enterprise bankruptcy began to appear. Revlon, a well-known American cosmetics company, filed for bankruptcy protection in mid June. Affected by factors such as intensified competition, Revlon's EBIT has been lower than its interest expense for five consecutive years since 2017. After the outbreak of COVID-19, problems such as supply chain chaos worsened Revlon's situation. Allianz trading company predicts that the number of bankrupt enterprises in the world will increase by 26% in 2023 compared with 2021. Maxim Le melle, an analyst at the company, warned that in view of the deterioration of the business environment in the future, the rise in interest rates may cause corporate sustainability problems. Source:Reference message network In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 08/02

  • UNCTAD: Russia Ukraine conflict pushes up global shipping costs and inhibits trade growth
    UNCTAD: Russia Ukraine conflict pushes up global shipping costs and inhibits trade growth On June 28, the United Nations Conference on Trade and development (UNCTAD) released the report "maritime trade disruption: the Russia Ukraine conflict and its impact on maritime trade logistics", which pointed out that the Russia Ukraine conflict is restraining trade and logistics in Ukraine and the Black Sea region, and increasing global ship demand and shipping costs; As a result, global container shipping and global value chains were disrupted, Ukraine's trading partners had to import goods from other countries, and many countries were forced to look further afield for oil, natural gas and food suppliers. The report said that in view of the dominant positions of Russia and Ukraine in the global agricultural market and their relationship with food security and poverty reduction, the food security problems caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are of particular concern. The report attributed the shipping and transportation obstacles in the Black Sea region to factors such as regional logistics interruption, Ukrainian port business interruption, destruction of important infrastructure, trade restrictions, increased insurance costs and rising fuel prices. The increase in transportation distance leads to a corresponding increase in transportation time and costs, while the soaring transportation costs and food losses caused by long-distance transportation drive up food prices. Since 2020, food prices and shipping costs have been rising, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated this situation. From February to may 2022, the transportation price of dry bulk cargoes such as grains increased by nearly 60%. It is estimated that the rise in food prices and freight will lead to a 3.7% rise in food prices for global consumers. The report warns that the interruption of food supply may lead to a decline in food production and rising prices, which will have serious consequences for global food security, especially for fragile and food import dependent economies. The report analyzes the soaring energy prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its consequences. Fuel and fertilizer are key inputs to global agriculture, while Russia is a giant in the global fuel and fertilizer market and one of the major exporters of oil and natural gas. The soaring energy prices caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine endanger global agriculture and food production and supply. Due to trade restrictions and logistics challenges, all participants in the shipping industry need to seek other sources of energy supply in more distant places, which increases the cost of oil and natural gas for shipping, and the rising energy prices exacerbate the transportation cost challenges faced by shipping shippers. Higher energy costs have also led to higher offshore fuel prices, raising shipping costs in all maritime transport sectors. Generally speaking, the increase of various costs means that the price of consumer goods will rise and may widen the gap between the rich and the poor. The report calls on all parties to take urgent actions and implement corresponding policies and measures to maintain the smooth flow of Global trade. The first is to open Ukrainian ports to international shipping, so that the country's grain can enter the overseas market at a lower transportation cost. Continued cooperation between flag States, port States and other players in the shipping industry is needed to maintain all necessary services, which will help minimize negative impacts on costs, insurance premiums and operations. Second, we must seek alternative means of transportation and relax restrictions on the movement of transit and transport workers, so as to reduce the pressure of cross-border trade. The third is to invest more in transport services and trade and transit facilitation. Fourth, given that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated the development challenges brought by the COVID-19 and the climate crisis, the international community should give more support to developing countries, especially the most vulnerable economies. Source:Economic Daily In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 07/04

  • Strikes in developed economies impact global supply chains
    According to the latest data released, soaring food prices pushed consumer prices in Britain to 9.1% in May, a 40 year high, highlighting the plight of the sharp rise in the cost of living of British people. Prices and oil prices soared, but people's wages did not rise accordingly, and their living standards fell substantially. In the face of the widening gap between the rich and the poor, 40000 British railway workers went on strike on June 21, 23 and 25 to strive for higher wages and better working conditions. Previously, the railway, maritime and Transport Union (RMT) of the UK failed to reach an agreement on remuneration, working conditions and layoffs in negotiations with operators. RMT asked for a salary increase of 7%~8% for its members, but the trade union said that network rail could only provide a 3% increase. The railway strike, the largest in 30 years, led to a serious disruption of the British railway network and most services came to a standstill. The British trade union also warned that the railway strike, which lasted for several days and caused serious traffic disruption in various places, may only be the beginning of the summer strike. The railway strike may last for six months. In addition, many British industries are considering strike action on wages. On June 23, about 700 employees of Heathrow Airport in the UK voted, and 95% of them agreed to strike. This is because the company refused to withdraw the 10% salary reduction measures implemented during the COVID-19. It is understood that the strike action is likely to start during the busiest summer holidays. In addition, British teachers, doctors and postal workers also said they would take strike action unless they get a wage increase corresponding to the inflation rate. The "road transport defense platform" of small and medium-sized transport truck drivers and self-employed transport drivers in Spain held a meeting on June 26 to decide whether to continue the strike. Earlier, the general strike of small and medium-sized truck drivers in Spain to protest the rise of oil prices lasted for a month, leading to a supply shortage in Spain. On June 17, thousands of workers in German seaports, including Hamburg Port, went on strike, which further exacerbated the port congestion. On June 20, about 70000 Belgian workers marched in Brussels, demanding that the government take action to deal with the soaring cost of living. The operation of Belgium's airport and national transportation network almost stopped because of the strike of workers, and the port operation of Antwerp Bruges, one of the largest ports in Europe, was also affected. Canada on the other side of the Atlantic is facing the same situation. The data released by Statistics Canada on June 22 showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in May this year increased by 7.7% compared with the same period last year, breaking the record of inflation growth since January 1983. However, the wages of Canadian workers have not increased accordingly, resulting in a significant decline in people's living standards. On June 15, the National Railway Corporation of Canada (CN) received the advance notice of strike according to the international trade union organization "international brotherhood of electrical workers" (IBEW). The chief negotiator of IBEW disclosed that CN workers failed to reach an agreement on benefits and wages on June 18, and then the workers went on strike. IBEW trade union represents the rights and interests of about 750 signal and communication employees in Canada. Earlier strikes in June took place in South Korea. The strike of South Korean freight truck workers started on June 7 lasted for 8 days. After four rounds of negotiations with the South Korean government, a tentative agreement was finally reached on extending the minimum wage guarantee for workers. Later, discussions will continue on whether to extend the minimum wage guarantee for workers to other areas. Strikes in these major economies have had a negative impact on global production and supply chains. The Ministry of industry of the Republic of Korea said that the eight day nationwide strike delayed the transportation of goods in the automobile, petrochemical products, wine and other industries, and the production losses and delivery obstacles made the losses of the industrial sector of the Republic of Korea exceed $1.2 billion. According to the South Korean supply chain insight data, one week after the strike of freight truck workers in mid June, the median weekly stay time of ships in Busan Port in South Korea soared, and the average stay time of imported containers in the main container ports in South Korea was 14.29 days, higher than the usual 4 days; The average stay time of export containers increased from 3.5 days in the previous week to 11.38 days. During the strike, the cargo volume of Busan, the busiest container port in South Korea, plummeted to a quarter of its normal level, while the throughput of Incheon port fell by about 20%. During the strike of British railway workers, 80% of the trains in Britain were shut down, and the operation time of other trains was greatly reduced. Due to the strike of signal workers, the train operation in some rural areas has been seriously affected. The collapse of the railway network has left many Britons working at home or finding alternative ways to commute. Maggie Simpson, head of the UK rail freight group, said the strike would "add additional risks to the already fragile supply chain". Regarding the impact of the strike on transport, Maersk recently announced that it is maintaining close communication with the UK rail freight operators, hoping to minimize the impact of the strike on Maersk's inland operations in the UK. Maersk also reminded customers that there may be a risk of unexpected disruption to British Rail transport due to the strike. At present, strikes in Europe are spreading, the supply chain has been severely impacted, and the backlog of undelivered goods in ports is becoming increasingly serious. This has forced shipping companies to give priority to shipping containers full of goods, leading to a large number of empty containers, which are crucial for Asian exporters, being trapped in export hubs such as the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. Maersk announced the latest situation of ports in major regions in northern Europe, saying that Bremen port, Rotterdam port, Hamburg Port and Antwerp Port are facing persistent congestion, and even have reached a critical level. Some traders worry that the recent strike by European dockers will have the nth impact on the global supply chain this year. Now people are worried that the global strike action will not be a repeat of the 1970s? In the 1970s, strikes, inflation and energy shortages plunged the global economy into crisis. For example, in the winter from the end of 1978 to the beginning of 1979, the economic crisis reached its climax in Britain. About 1.5 million people in various fields in Britain took part in the strike, and the medical treatment, logistics and even waste disposal were all suspended in a large area, which was called the "winter of dissatisfaction". Today, the world also faces the same problems: high inflation, insufficient energy supply, possible economic recession, declining people's living standards, and the widening gap between the rich and the poor. Source: International Business Daily In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 06/30

  • The "high fever" of inflation will not return, and the global tightening monetary policy will increase
    In response to high inflation, central banks around the world are accelerating the pace of raising interest rates. After the US, Brazil, Switzerland, the UK, Argentina and other countries announced to raise interest rates last week, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Korea, the Bank of Australia and other countries have made statements to continue tightening this week. Economists also pointed out that monetary tightening policy is necessary to control inflation, but in the context of the current global economic slowdown, we should be vigilant against the risk of economic recession caused by overly aggressive policies. Multinational central banks accelerate tightening On June 20 local time, when attending the hearing of the European Parliament, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the current economic activities in the euro area are affected by many adverse factors, such as high energy costs, deteriorating terms of trade and the impact of high inflation on Residents' disposable income, and face greater uncertainty. In view of the current inflation environment, the European Central Bank has decided to take further measures to normalize monetary policy, and will decide to adjust the speed according to the latest data and the assessment of the medium-term development of inflation. It is reported that Lagarde reiterated the two interest rate hikes in July and September disclosed at the end of last month. On June 21, the governor of the Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, said that the inflation rate in the fourth quarter was expected to reach 7%, and the Bank of Australia would prepare for further interest rate hikes, and would dynamically adjust monetary policy according to economic data. It is widely expected that the central bank will raise interest rates by 50 basis points in July and August. On the same day, the Bank of Korea said in a statement that the inflation rate of South Korea this year may be higher than the forecast value in May. Analysts believe that this statement further increases the possibility of the central bank raising interest rates by 50 basis points at the monetary policy meeting next month. In fact, recently, many central banks around the world are accelerating the pace of monetary tightening. On the 15th of this month, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase of 75 basis points, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to between 1.5% and 1.75%. This is the largest single interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve since 1994. Previously, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and 50 basis points respectively in March and may, significantly accelerating the pace of its policy to control inflation. The Central Bank of Brazil announced on the evening of the 15th that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from 12.75% to 13.25%, the 11th consecutive interest rate increase. Middle Eastern countries also moved quickly. The Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates and the Central Bank of Bahrain announced a 75 basis point increase in interest rates on the 15th, the Saudi Monetary Authority announced a 50 basis point increase in interest rates, and Kuwait announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates. On the 16th, the Swiss central bank raised interest rates for the first time since September2007, and unexpectedly announced that it would raise the policy interest rate by 50 basis points from -0.75% to -0.25%. On the same day, the Bank of England announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from 1% to 1.25%, the fifth interest rate increase since December last year. In addition, the Central Bank of Argentina also announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate from 49% to 52%, the sixth interest rate hike this year. Rising global inflationary pressure In the current interest rate hike cycle, central banks around the world acted quickly and in step, mainly because the rapid rise in inflation has become a global phenomenon. When the outbreak of COVID-19 broke out, many countries took interest rate cutting measures to boost economic growth. Now, the epidemic has increased the bottleneck of the supply chain and the crisis in Ukraine and other factors have significantly increased the inflation pressure. The inflation rate in many countries has even reached the highest level in decades, leading to the central banks having to change the direction of monetary policy. At present, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and other developed countries have officially entered the channel of raising interest rates to combat the high inflation level, while emerging economies have also tightened their monetary policies in order to curb inflation, capital flight and devaluation of their currencies. According to the New York Times, at least 45 central banks have raised their benchmark interest rates this year. In addition, according to the statistics of Nihon Keizai Shim bun, since this year, central banks around the world have raised policy interest rates 80 times, the highest number in previous years, of which emerging countries account for more than 60 times. Nevertheless, inflationary pressures are still rising globally. According to the latest data, the year-on-year increase of consumer price index (CPI) in the United States in May was the highest since December 1981, and the month on month increase was also significantly larger than that in April; New Zealand's CPI rose 6.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, the largest increase since the second quarter of 1990; The Bank of England expects CPI to exceed 9% in the coming months and 11% in October, far exceeding the target of 2%. According to the global economic outlook report released by the world bank a few days ago, against the background of soaring food and energy prices, rebounding demand and persistent supply chain bottlenecks, the market expects global inflation to peak in mid-2022, but still remain high. By the middle of 2023, the global inflation rate is expected to fall to 3%, about 1 percentage point higher than the average level in 2019. "Side effects" of economic recession While actively fighting against high inflation, central bankers and economists are generally worried that the aggressive tightening policies taken to control inflation may plunge the economy into recession against the background of the current slowdown in global economic growth. The Japanese Economic News reported that the global financial contraction is causing the return of venture capital. With the rapid rise of global interest rates, capital began to flee from risky assets such as stocks to other safe haven assets, and its "side effects" on curbing the prospects of economic growth began to appear. Compared with the end of 2021, the US Dow Jones index and the European stock index fell by more than 17%. The S & P index fell about 6% last week, the largest weekly decline since the outbreak. The emerging market bond index tracked by Bloomberg also fell. The New York Times quoted Barclays economists as saying that the persistent inflationary pressure and deteriorating expectations are forcing the central bank to become more aggressive in formulating monetary policy. As the financial situation deteriorates and confidence declines, the deterioration of the real economy may follow. The World Bank recently lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2022 and warned of the risk of "stagflation". The report points out that the Ukrainian crisis has caused a serious slowdown in regional economic growth, brought considerable negative global spillover effects, and amplified the problems caused by the supply chain bottleneck, soaring inflation and other epidemics. Since the beginning of this year, the global economic growth is expected to decline significantly. The annual growth rate is expected to slow down from 5.7% in 2021 to 2.9% this year. The growth rate from 2023 to 2024 will also hover around 3%. World Bank President Marcus believes that the global economy is once again in danger. For many countries, economic recession will be "inevitable". He called for encouraging production and avoiding trade restrictions to ensure food and energy supplies. Source: Economic Information Daily In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 06/23

  • What is the future of commodities
    In recent days, global commodity markets have suffered twists and turns, with most commodities falling. The Us Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike sparked a sharp reaction and market fears of a recession are rising. What is the future of commodities? What are the domestic implications? Experts said the us should be on guard against the spillover effects of the rapid interest rate hike and safeguard the hard-won overall situation of stable growth and supply and price stability. Crude oil and agricultural prices remain strong. Have commodity prices "peaked"? Some believe that commodity prices have peaked due to high inflation in major developed economies, geopolitical conflicts and COVID-19, further imbalance between supply and demand, rising energy prices, a weak global economy and weak demand expectations for industrial goods. Another view is that commodities and oil prices remain bullish, arguing that "most commodities are in a long-term uptrend". Although the Fed raised interest rates more than expected, the monthly spread structure of the crude oil market continued to be strong, and the oil price continued to have a strong performance. Yang an, head of energy and chemical research of Haitong Futures Co., Ltd., said that at present, the overseas market is facing high inflation pressure, and cooling the oil market has become an important task for governments of various countries. The United States has made frequent moves recently, and may also introduce some cooling measures, which is the uncertainty faced by the current market. From the domestic market, the Wenhua commodity index has started a periodic decline since June 9. Crude oil plate, oil plate, grain plate, etc. are among the few closing and rising plates. At present, crude oil and agricultural products are still two "anti falling" plates. Shitou, deputy director of the Research Institute of Shanghai Stock Exchange futures, believes that the US dollar index has reached a high point and will exert a suppressive effect on bulk commodities in the medium and long term. Crude oil and agricultural products are affected by changes in the global commodity supply chain, especially the supply side contraction caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The peak and decline time is later. Some experts believe that as long as there is no obvious downward trend in oil prices and agricultural products, it is difficult for commodities to have an inflection point. Increasing differentiation trend of different varieties. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the main indicators of China's economy recovered in May. The resumption of work and production of enterprises has been steadily promoted. Benefiting from a series of policies and measures, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first may rose again, and the manufacturing investment increased by 10.6% year-on-year. Against this background, the domestic bulk commodity market is mixed, and the trend differentiation of various varieties is increasing. "Commodity prices are not only related to the domestic economic cycle, but also affected by the global economic cycle. Under the interweaving of internal and external factors, the market may usher in a wide range of shocks." Caoyanghui, director of Nanhua Futures Research Institute, said. Overall, the trend of Nanhua commodity index is still strong, and the bulk commodity market has reached a historical high. In terms of plates, after the precious metal plate has experienced a periodic bottom and reverse rise, the internal driving force is insufficient, and there will not be a strong trend in the short term. The confidence in stabilizing the economic market is clear, and the repair of demand may drive the non-ferrous plate upward. Xiao Jing, chief researcher of non-ferrous metals at the national investment Anxin Futures Research Institute, told reporters that the bull market atmosphere of non-ferrous metals began to differentiate, and the independent supply and demand pricing of various varieties played a greater role. In the context of maintaining supply and price stability, the supply of most domestic non-ferrous metals will continue to be stable. Qiuyuecheng, assistant director of Ever-bright Futures Research Institute and director of black commodity research, said that the steel price fell significantly, and the re-bar inventory was at the highest level in the same period in history, which significantly suppressed the steel price trend. However, the domestic pig iron output has rebounded significantly, and the demand for raw materials by steel mills is at a high level. Therefore, the price of raw materials is obviously stronger than that of steel, which also puts pressure on the profits of steel mills. The corn market is in sufficient supply at different stages. Wanchengzhi, a researcher of Shanghai Research Institute of Hengli futures, told the reporter that at present, the downstream consumption of corn is stable, the start-up of starch plants is stable, the feed output is stable and rising, and the corn inventory of deep-processing enterprises is lower than that of the same period last year. Help stabilize the economic market. The fluctuation of commodity prices has brought great pressure to real enterprises. It is an important task for the futures market to better serve the real economy and play a positive role in maintaining supply and stabilizing prices of bulk commodities. Since the beginning of this year, China's major futures exchanges have resolutely implemented the deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to maintain supply and price stability, adopted a series of targeted risk control and service measures, improved the quality of market operation, promoted the smooth circulation of futures and cash, broadened service channels, provided futures solutions for maintaining supply and price stability of bulk commodities, and helped stabilize the economic market. The relevant person in charge of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange said that the futures market is of great significance to promote the sustainable operation of enterprises and ensure the stable development of the real economy. Focusing on the supply of innovative varieties and guided by the cultivation and service of industrial enterprises, Zheng Shang strives to expand the breadth and depth of serving the real economy. The pilot project of "futures price stabilization order" of Shanghai Futures Exchange has become a highlight. Last year, the previous period Exchange carried out a pilot cooperation with Baowu group and its subsidiary ouyeyunshang on "futures stable price orders" for ferrous metal varieties, providing physical enterprises with spot supply guarantee through Baowu group and providing physical enterprises with tools to reduce the risk of price fluctuation. This year, the project of "stable price order for futures" was extended to such energy-saving varieties as petroleum asphalt and low sulfur fuel oil. Through "future cash linkage", enterprises were encouraged to use option tools to hedge risks, and help physical enterprises in the oil and gas industry chain resume production and operate steadily. Liu Yong, general manager of the current business planning center of Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical Co., Ltd., said that under the environment of sharp fluctuations in the prices of energy and chemical bulk commodities, "futures stable price orders" can enable enterprises to boldly and confidently arrange production and operation plans without worrying about the impact of future price fluctuations, and give entity enterprises a "reassurance". Dalian Commodity Exchange provides more specialized, refined and featured futures services for enterprises while monitoring the operation of grain, iron ore, pigs and other bulk commodity markets. By the end of May this year, 94 futures and options had been listed in China, covering energy, food, metals and other important fields related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, involving more than 60 industrial chains, escorting bulk commodities worth about 22trillion yuan, and weaving a relatively perfect risk management network for entity enterprises. Wang Ying, vice president of China Futures Association, suggested that physical enterprises can effectively avoid the risks caused by many uncertain factors in the production and operation process and realize the optimization and upgrading of the enterprise's business model by scientifically using the price discovery, hedging, risk hedging and other functions of the futures market. Source: Economic Daily In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 06/20

  • The specter of a new "trade cold war" has returned to the world, the WTO chief has warned
    The World Trade Organization (WTO) opened its 12th ministerial conference on Monday with hopes of reaching agreements on fisheries, intellectual property rights for COVID-19 vaccines and food security, but also with concerns that geopolitical tensions could divide the world into two trading blocs, EFE reported on June 12. The war in Ukraine, economic tensions between major powers and years of failure by WTO members to reach major agreements have revived the frightening specter of a new "trade cold war," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Ivera warned at the opening ceremony. "Splitting into trade blocs could mean a 5 per cent drop in global GROSS domestic product," she warned. The WTO ministerial meeting, which is usually held every two years, has not been held for nearly five years due to the pandemic. Over the next three days, the session will seek agreement on, among other things, a temporary suspension of COVID-19 vaccine patents to boost vaccine production in developing countries. India and South Africa proposed it as early as 2020, and most developing countries have joined in, though a number of developed countries where the pharmaceutical industry plays a key role remain reluctant. Food security will be another priority. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated inflation caused by rising food and fertilizer prices and the session is expected to negotiate measures to ease the blockade on food exports and facilitate access to these basic commodities. The negotiations are tricky because, despite Russia's international isolation, the WTO system requires that any measures be adopted by consensus, meaning that each member (Russia is also a WTO member) has veto power, so any agreement must be counted on Russia. According to the Website of Nihon Keizai Shim bun on June 13, the WTO ministerial meeting opened at its headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland on June 12. The meeting will discuss issues such as food security and fisheries subsidies, which are threatened by the war with Ukraine. On fisheries subsidies, the WTO has been engaged in continuous negotiations for more than 20 years. While some argue that subsidies that lead to excessive fishing should be banned, developing countries, which rely on fishing to support their economies, are cautious and demand exceptions. WTO reform will also be on the agenda. The main focus is to restore the function of dispute settlement to resolve trade frictions between member countries. The last ministerial meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in 2017 ended without a ministerial declaration, and the Trump administration showed its criticism of the WTO. It is still uncertain whether a ministerial declaration will be issued due to the different positions of each country on various issues. The WTO's first ministerial meeting in nearly five years opened in Geneva on Wednesday, with 164 members hoping to reach agreement on fisheries, COVID-19 vaccine patents and strategies to avert a global food crisis, but differences remain wide. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO's director-general, declared herself "cautiously optimistic" from the start. If the WTO's top decision-making body can agree on at least "one or two" issues, "it will be a success," she said. Tensions were on display at a closed-door meeting on Monday, where some delegates spoke to condemn Russia's military actions in Ukraine. Ukraine's representative also spoke and was greeted by a standing ovation, a WTO spokesman said. About 30 delegates "left the room" just before Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov spoke. Source: Reference Information Network In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 06/16

  • The risk of the Fed walking a tightrope is increasing
    The US consumer price Index (CPI) rose 1% month on month in May and 8.6% year on year, the third consecutive month of above 8% growth, the Labor Department said Thursday. Although the Federal Reserve has begun a tightening cycle and said it would proceed at a brisk pace with interest rate hikes and balance-sheet shrinkage, inflation, the worst in 40 years, has yet to abate. Persistently high inflation is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve, making it increasingly difficult for the central bank to walk a tightrope while the risk of a US recession grows, economists said. High inflation is unlikely to 'peak'. Year-over-year CPI inflation has been above 6% for eight consecutive months since October. The latest data showed CPI growth in May was the fastest since December 1981, and the month-on-month rate was significantly higher than in April. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.6 per cent month-on-month and 6 per cent year on year, both higher than consensus forecasts. Energy prices rose 3.9 per cent month-on-month and 34.6 per cent year on year, the biggest year-on-year rise since September 2005. Gasoline prices rose by 4.1 percent month-on-month and 48.7 percent year-on-year. Food prices rose 1.2 per cent month-on-month and 10.1 per cent year on year, the first time in more than 40 years that the index has exceeded 10 per cent. Some economists had argued that INFLATION may have "peaked" in March, but the latest data threw that argument out the window. Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told Xinhua that food and gasoline prices are still climbing and there is no sign of easing inflation for at least the next few months. The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline hit a record high of $4.986, up about 14 percent from a month ago and more than 60 percent from a year ago, according to data released Friday by AAA. Higher gasoline prices due to lower supply and increased demand, combined with higher crude oil prices, are likely to keep prices high in the short term. American Enterprise Institute economist Desmond Lachman also said the recent rise in international crude oil prices above $120 a barrel casts doubt on the view that inflation will peak in the near term. Us Inflation is unacceptably high and is expected to remain high, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at a Senate Finance Committee hearing on Thursday. The risk of recession has risen The latest data suggest that the Fed has a long way to go to rein in soaring inflation and that the odds of a US recession are rising. At its regular monetary policy meeting in March, the Fed raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from near zero, kicking off an inflation-fighting tightening cycle. In early May, the Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points and indicated that there could be more 50 basis point increases to come. Wells Fargo Securities economists Sarah House and Michael Plesser said in a note that May data show inflation remains higher than the Fed would like, and expect the Fed to continue to tighten monetary policy, leaving little doubt of a 50 basis point rate hike at next week's meeting. As the Fed moves more aggressively to fight inflation, a growing number of economists see the risk of a us recession rising. Rachman told Xinhua that the fall in stock and bond market prices since the start of the year has wiped out about $12 trillion worth of US household wealth, which if sustained will increase the risk of an economic "hard landing" early next year. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to achieve a "soft landing" for the economy given the severity of inflation and the level of unemployment, and its policies could lead to a recession, former Fed Vice Chairman Randall Quarles said in an interview. According to a survey of chief financial officers released by CNBC on Tuesday, 77 percent of respondents believe the US economy will slip into recession in the first half of 2023, and none of the 22 chief financial officers surveyed thought a recession can be avoided. The White House is also under intense pressure from persistently high inflation. U.S. President Joe Biden's approval rating is at an all-time low of 39 percent, according to a new poll from political news and polling data aggregator. Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Brooking s Institution, told Xinhua that if inflation continues at this pace, it will certainly hurt the Democratic Party's midterm election prospects in November. Source: The XinHua Agency In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 06/15

  • It is difficult for the United States to curb high inflation. Europe, Australia and India have made this choice!
    The global economic outlook recently released by the world bank emphasizes that the downward adjustment of global economic growth expectations is accompanied by the risk of stagflation. The report points out that under the background of soaring food and energy prices, rebounding demand and persistent supply chain bottlenecks, the market expects global inflation to peak in mid-2022, but still remain high. The report predicts that the global economic growth in the next few years will remain below the average level of 2010-2020. The global economy may enter a period of long-term weak growth and high inflation. The United Nations reports that the world is facing the most serious cost of living crisis since the 21st century. The UN global food, energy and financial crisis response team released a report on June 8 that the world is facing the most serious cost of living crisis since the 21st century due to factors such as the conflict in Ukraine. To meet the challenges, it is necessary to improve the crisis response capacity of all countries and peoples. The FAO food price index is now close to the highest point in history, 20.8% higher than the same period last year; The overall energy price in 2022 is expected to rise by 50% over last year due to concerns that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will drag on for a long time and the energy market will fluctuate more severely; The price of chemical fertilizer has doubled compared with the average level from 2000 to 2020; The shipping price is three times higher than that before the COVID-19. In addition, the rise of interest rates and investors' hesitation have led to the devaluation of currencies of developing countries and the decline of international lending capacity. On June 7, the Central Bank of Australia announced another interest rate hike, raising the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.85%, while continuing to raise the foreign exchange settlement balance interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.75% from 0.25%. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, the Central Bank of Australia has cut interest rates three times, reducing the interest rate to a historical low of 0.1%. However, the recent rise in domestic inflation in Australia has forced the central bank to raise interest rates continuously for two months. Philip Lowe, governor of the Australian central bank, said that the resilience of the Australian economy and its inflation level showed that unconventional support policies were no longer needed. The Bank of India announced on June 8 that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.9%. This is the second time this year that the Central Bank of India has raised interest rates after raising interest rates by 40 basis points in May. The decision of the Bank of India was in line with market expectations. India's inflation rate has exceeded the upper limit of the medium-term inflation target of 6% set by the Central Bank of India for four consecutive months. In April, India's consumer price index rose by 7.79%, the highest level in the past eight years. The increase in inflation in India is mainly caused by the rise in international commodity prices. In order to curb inflation, the Central Bank of India raised the benchmark interest rate, and the Indian Ministry of finance has also taken measures for many times, such as cutting the fuel consumption tax, lowering the import tariff of edible oil, etc. The European Central Bank plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July. The European Central Bank announced on June 9 that it plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July and stop net asset purchases from July 1. At present, the main refinancing interest rate, marginal lending interest rate and deposit mechanism interest rate of the European Central Bank are maintained at 0.00%, 0.25% and negative 0.50% respectively. According to the decision, the European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates again in September. If the medium-term inflation outlook continues or worsens, it will appropriately increase the range of interest rate hikes. The Russian central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to 9.5%. The Central Bank of Russia announced on June 10 that it would cut the benchmark interest rate by 150 basis points to 9.5%. The Central Bank of Russia said in a statement that the external environment of the Russian economy is still full of challenges. At the same time, Russian inflation accelerated and slowed down, and the economic situation was better than previously expected. Data show that Russia's domestic price growth slowed down in May and early June. At the end of February this year, the Russian Central Bank significantly raised the benchmark interest rate to 20%. On April 8, the Central Bank of Russia lowered the benchmark interest rate to 17%, at the end of April to 14% and on May 26 to 11%. According to the data released by the U.S. Department of labor on June 10, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 1% month on month and 8.6% year-on-year in May. The year-on-year increase has been above 8% for three consecutive months, and reached the highest value since December 1981. Although the Federal Reserve has started the cycle of tightening monetary policy and said that it will take a quick step in raising interest rates and "shrinking the table", the most serious inflation in 40 years has not yet eased. Economists believe that the continued high inflation has brought great pressure to the Federal Reserve, making it increasingly difficult for the Federal Reserve to "walk the tightrope" in its policies. At the same time, the risk of economic recession in the United States has intensified. Some economists previously believed that US inflation may have "peaked" in March, but the latest data show that this view is untenable. Source: International Business Daily In this article, except for the pictures indicating the source, the rest are from open online channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 06/13

  • China pushes ahead with 'World's biggest trade deal' despite US Interference
    Excluded from the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, China is pushing for the world's biggest trade deal, according to a June 5 report on the website of CONSUMER News and Business.While US President Joe Biden trumpeted a new "Indo-Pacific strategy", China took a low profile and hosted a high-level discussion on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the report said.RCEP is the largest free trade agreement in the world. Just a short time ago, the Biden administration launched the so-called Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which includes 13 countries but excludes China, as the US seeks to expand its political and economic influence in the "Indo-Pacific region", the report said. The RCEP meeting in Hainan confirmed analysts' expectations that China may not react to or fight back against IPEF, but instead push ahead with agreed trade agreements and use existing tariffs and market access policies, the report said. "China is not going to take immediate or very targeted measures to deal with IPEF," said Shirui Lee, a trade scholar at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore's Nan yang Technological University. Shortly after announcing the launch of the IPEF, the second RCEP Regional Development Media Think Tank Forum was held in Haikou, Hainan Province, where trade experts from the region gathered to discuss more ways to expand trade among member countries, the report said. "In line with China's support for multilateralism and glocalization, it is likely to continue to push for more countries to join RCEP, as it would provide its members with huge market access, which IPEF lacks," said Mr Li. She said China is likely to counter any future US economic offensives in the Asia-Pacific by strengthening its economic dominance in the region and developing trade under RCEP. Li said Beijing will also focus on applying to join other large trade agreements, including the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Digital Economy Partnership. Mr. Lehilli added that China's strategy would be consistent with how it, as well as other countries and political observers, view the IPEF as a non-trade deal and an attempt by Mr. Biden to pivot geopolitically, not economically, back to the Asia-Pacific region. After launching the IPEF, former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad criticized the economic framework, saying it was a political move by the US to try to isolate China, the report said.Malaysia is one of 13 countries that have joined the IPEF. Wang H eng, a trade expert at Australia's University of New South Wales, also believes China will continue to take advantage of market access under the RCEP framework, as it will allow it to strengthen its presence in the region. Since the RCEP was launched in January, China has made progress in some areas, Li said.It lays out a blueprint for Chinese companies on how to expand trade and find opportunities through RCEP. Beijing has set guidelines in a number of areas, including trade and manufacturing, and has promoted the use of the yuan for trade settlement, the report said.The authorities have also asked companies to take full advantage of its much-touted Hainan free trade port. As for signing more trade agreements that could counter the IPEF, Mr Leary believes China is unlikely to sign other bilateral or trilateral agreements in the region, such as the China-Japan-South Korea free trade agreement, because it prefers a gradual approach to trade reforms. Source: Sina Business Headlines In this article, the content of this article is from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 06/08

  • Up 2000 points! The strong rebound of RMB exchange rate is due to this major trade benefit?!
    Looking back over the past two weeks, the offshore RMB continued to rebound. As of the close of last week, the US dollar was at 6.6575 against the offshore RMB. In May, the offshore RMB once depreciated to around 6.8386. During this period, the cumulative appreciation of RMB was close to 2000 points. From June 2 to 3, the performance of offshore RMB was even more awesome, with an increase of nearly 900 points, the highest since May. So what happened? Analysts believe that in addition to the acceleration of China's domestic resumption of work and production, another important reason is that on June 2 local time, the US Deputy Trade Representative Sarah Bianchi said that the Biden government was considering "all options" to assess possible changes in US tariffs on Chinese imports, including tariff reductions and new trade investigations, and shifted the focus to strategic issues with China. This may mean that the tariff reduction that has been talked about for a long time may really come. Expected increase in tariff exemption Recently, there has been constant news that the United States is expected to cancel or partially cancel tariffs on Chinese goods in the face of high inflation pressure and the US mid-term election is approaching. Once it is settled, it will undoubtedly be good for China's exports and is expected to ease market sentiment. Last Thursday, driven by the Relevant Remarks on tariff exemption, China continued to release signals of stabilizing the economy. The growth of China's Internet Index kweb was close to 6%, and the RMB also continued to rebound. On the 2nd, the onshore RMB closed at 6.6600 against the US dollar, 258 basis points higher than the previous trading day. It rose 481 basis points in the week. The offshore RMB closed up at 6.6537 against the US dollar on the 3rd, with a cumulative sharp rise of 667 basis points in the week. In April, the year-on-year growth rate of us CPI was 8.3%, which was the first month on month decline after 8 months, indicating that inflation peaked and fell, but the easing of inflation pressure was still less than expected, especially seeing that the oil price is now moving towards the $120 / barrel mark. US President Biden recently said that he is considering canceling some tariffs imposed by former president trump on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods in 2018 and 2019. The Biden government is seeking ways to cool inflation. The industry has also called for tariff cuts to reduce the costs of enterprises and consumers. US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that some tariffs hurt consumers and should be abolished. Bianchi said in an interview with Reuters on the 2nd that he is seeking to solve the long-term challenges from China and obtain a truly meaningful tariff structure. We are looking at everything. Our focus is to ensure that we readjust our relationship with China again and pay attention to some concerns Asked whether the tariff decision would lead to the abolition of some consumer goods tariffs and a new investigation into China's industrial subsidies and other practices, Bianchi said: "now everything is on the table." She said that the USTR provided some relief for China's tariffs by excluding 352 expired specific products from the tariff of up to 25%. More than 140 members of Congress called for an expansion of the list. The office of the United States trade representative is conducting a four-year statutory review of Section 301 tariffs that may last for months. The agency is collecting opinions from industry participants in two batches, with deadlines of July 5 and August 22. On June 2, at a regular press conference held by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, in response to a series of media questions about the US' recent consideration of abolishing the imposition of tariffs on China, Gao Feng, a spokesman, said that China's position on this issue is consistent. The abolition of the additional tariff on China is not only in the interests of Chinese and American enterprises, but also in the interests of the vast number of consumers in the United States and in the common interests of the world. China and the United States should walk in the opposite direction, create an atmosphere and conditions for bilateral economic and trade cooperation, and constantly enhance the well-being of the two peoples. Obvious market warmth Judging from the domestic situation in China, the situation is also moving in a good direction, and the most important one is the resumption of work and production. On June 2, the Beijing municipal government issued a notice on the implementation plan of Beijing for coordinating epidemic prevention and control and stabilizing economic growth, actively, steadily and orderly promoting the resumption of work and production, adhering to the general policy of "dynamic zeroing", and implementing social prevention and control measures at different levels. Timely update and dynamically adjust the epidemic prevention and control guidelines by scene and category, and timely solve the practical difficulties caused by the epidemic prevention and control of enterprises that have returned to work and production, the return of supporting enterprises to work and production, logistics and transportation, and the return to Beijing. Guide more enterprises to formulate closed-loop production plans, optimize the production process with the minimum production unit, the minimum personnel grouping, partition, wrong time and wrong shift, and improve the ability of enterprises to resist the impact of the epidemic. The living quarters and construction areas of major projects shall be managed separately, and new employees shall live in independent areas to ensure that the construction progress is not delayed and the quality is not discounted. According to the economic voice of China Central Radio and television, Tianxia Caijing, the resumption of work, production and market in Shanghai is being promoted. Since June 1, Shanghai has fully implemented the normalized management of epidemic prevention and control, enterprises have accelerated their production and operation, and relevant departments are also creating conditions for enterprises to return to work. The reason why it is so important to resume work and production is that a large amount of funds have been hoarded among banks. Only after these funds are released can real credit relief be brought, and the most fundamental condition for credit relief is the resumption of work and production. The current expectation of the market is that the resumption of work and production will lead to a wider credit. Whether this expectation can be realized depends on the follow-up effect. Multiple factors determine the sustainability of RMB rebound In the current context of inflation and politics, tariff exemptions seem logical. Many institutions believe that the elimination of tariffs will be beneficial to China's exports, and the RMB is expected to rebound in the short term. Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund said that with the recent fall in US bond yields, the RMB exchange rate strengthened, and the external disturbance gradually eased. The market sentiment is also improving, and the response to positive information is more sensitive. The recent large net inflow of northward funds has also contributed to the upward movement of the market. Previously, the market also continued to fluctuate due to the fear that the United States would launch an anti circumvention investigation against photovoltaic manufacturers in Southeast Asia. In the petition, American manufacturers said that Chinese manufacturers set up branches in Southeast Asia and build PV product production lines, and then export battery modules to the United States, so as to avoid being levied anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) duties that must be levied on China's export of PV terminal products to the United States. But the agency's current concern about this issue is also declining. Zhang Wei, senior analyst of Fullerton manufacturing, mentioned that there are about 200000 practitioners in the entire photovoltaic industry in the United States, 80%~90% of which are concentrated in the downstream, especially relying on China's silicon chips and components. Once the work is stopped, the employment problem will become prominent. At present, people from all walks of life believe that the situation may become clearer from July to August. In the worst case, a symbolic tax of 5%~15% or no tariff at all may be imposed. However, the impact of the epidemic and the global recession on exports may still be more critical in the future. In addition to the potential impact of the containment measures on exports, overseas import demand may be peaking and falling. Nomura recently mentioned that at present, foreign consumption has shifted from durable goods to services, and the demand for durable goods has declined. At the same time, the fiscal stimulus of major economies weakened and new export orders to other regions decreased. For example, personal protective equipment (PPE) and work at home (WFH) products have been the main driving factors for China's strong exports in the past two years, and the current momentum has begun to weaken. In terms of PPE related products, the year-on-year growth rates of textile yarn and fabric products (including masks) and medical devices (including respirators) were 0.9% and -10.2% respectively in April and 22.2% and 4.9% respectively in March. In addition to tariffs, the manifestation of Sino US trade frictions also includes that the United States previously included a number of Chinese companies in the "entity list". In the medium and long term, most institutions believe that we still need to pay attention to the changes of geopolitical risks. In addition, the process of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is far from over. The scale reduction was officially launched in June. Interest rates continued to rise by 50 basis points in June and July, and the appreciation trend of the US dollar remained unchanged. At present, Barclays, France Pakistan, Standard Chartered, Morgan Stanley and other major international banks have adjusted the annual target price of RMB against the US dollar to the range of 6.6~6.9, and the range shock is still the consensus expectation. Source: import and export manager In this article, except for the pictures indicating the source, the rest are from open online channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 06/07

  • A wave of resignations broke out in the United States! 4.4 million people resigned voluntarily
    Recently, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 4.4 million Americans chose to leave voluntarily in February, close to the highest number in history, an increase of 94000 over January. The wave of resignations has continued since the second half of 2021. The United States set off a wave of resignations The number of job vacancies in the United States in February was about 11.27 million, down slightly from January. According to the data, the number of job vacancies in the education and health services sector was the highest this month, at 2.23 million; Followed by the professional and business services sector, with a total of 2.1 million vacancies; There were also 1.86 million vacancies in the trade, transport and utilities sectors. In addition, in March, the number of ADP employees in the United States was 455000, the previous value was 475000, and 450000 are expected, the smallest increase in employment since August last year. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed people in the United States in February was about 6.27 million. A total of 1.4 million workers were laid off in February, the same number as in January. Economists said that at present, the layoff rate in the United States is very low, and the labor side occupies a strong position in the job market. "The biggest cost in the service economy is labor," said James Knightley, chief international economist at ing. "Given the clear evidence that companies have pricing power, this means that inflation will continue to remain high as companies pass on higher costs to consumers." According to the latest consumer price index (CPI) data, the rate of price rise in February reached the highest level in 40 years. US consumer confidence rebounded slightly The data released by the World Association for large enterprises also showed that the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 105.7 in February, the lowest level in a year. However, the index rebounded to 107.2 in March. According to Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators of the World Federation of large enterprises, this is an encouraging sign that the economy continued to grow in the first three months of this year. Franco added: "people's willingness to buy big goods such as cars has weakened in the past few months because consumers believe that prices are rising, especially gasoline prices." Despite a slight rise in consumer confidence, Americans are facing the highest inflation since 1982, exceeding wage increases, and the Russian Ukrainian war has further contributed. This has led some consumers to control consumption, and the slowdown in consumption will pose a risk to economic growth. US GDP is lower than market expectations And so it is. According to the Bureau of economic analysis of the US Department of Commerce, the final annualized quarter on quarter value of us real GDP in the fourth quarter was 6.9%, slightly lower than the 7% expected by the market. The Bureau of economic analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce said that the real GDP growth in the fourth quarter mainly reflected the growth of private inventory investment, exports, PCE and non residential fixed investment, which was partially offset by the decrease of federal, state and local government expenditure. The downward revision of final value mainly reflects the downward revision of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and exports, which is partially offset by the upward revision of private inventory investment. In this regard, the economic analysis Bureau said COVID-19 in the four quarter led to some parts of the United States continue to be restricted and disrupted operation. Due to the expiration of some exempted loans for enterprises under federal subsidies, allocations to state and local governments and social welfare for families have been reduced. The Federal Reserve may speed up interest rate hikes to fight inflation When necessary, several officials of the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to fight inflation in the near future. In the middle of this month, the Federal Reserve announced to raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 0.25% and 0.5%. This is the first time the Fed has raised interest rates since December 2018. It also marks the formal end of the Fed's zero interest rate policy since March 2020 and has entered a new round of interest rate hikes in December 2018. Meanwhile, fed governor Christopher Waller supports raising interest rates by 50 basis points once or more in the coming months to have a faster impact on inflation. However, from historical experience, it is difficult for the US economy to achieve a soft landing against the background of high inflation. More and more economists and investors are worried that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates sharply in response to high inflation, it will increase the risk of recession in the United States. Source: import and export manager In this article, except for the pictures indicating the source, the rest are from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 04/03

  • Latin America: green market under green recovery
    Global climate change is one of the most severe and far-reaching challenges facing the world today. Latin America (hereinafter referred to as "Latin America") has become one of the most vulnerable regions in global climate change due to its own geographical conditions, unbalanced economic structure and weak financial and technological foundation. The novel coronavirus pneumonia has severely damaged the Latin American economy. After the outbreak, Latin American multinational countries emphasized the importance of green stimulus measures in the revitalization of the economic plan. Latin American green recovery has created new opportunities for Sino Latin American economic and trade cooperation. Climate change threatens Latin American economy Climate warming and extreme weather events have brought and will continue to bring severe challenges to the Latin American economy. Agriculture, tourism, coastal urban development, fresh water supply and transportation bear the brunt. Agriculture is a vital economic sector in Latin American countries, accounting for 5% ~ 18% of the region's GDP, 20% of the employed population and 1 / 4 of the total foreign trade exports. If the contribution of agricultural comprehensive enterprises in the whole food supply chain is taken into account, the economic value created by the agricultural sector can reach 25% ~ 30% of GDP in Brazil, Argentina and other countries. At the same time, agriculture is the most vulnerable economic sector in climate change. Changes in temperature, precipitation, light, greenhouse gas concentration and other factors will have an impact on a region's agricultural production layout, planting system, crop yield and even trade comparative advantage. 2020 is one of the three hottest years on record in Central America and the Caribbean and the second hottest year in South America. Heat waves frequently hit Latin America, and drought and abnormal precipitation affected crop yields. According to the Research Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Latin America will become one of the regions hardest hit by global climate change. The world bank has estimated that climate change will endanger up to 70% of Brazilian soybeans and 45% of Mexican corn. By 2030, the yield of beans and corn crops in Central America and the Caribbean may be reduced by about 20%, and the fish catch in the Caribbean will be reduced by up to 50%. Tourism is the economic lifeline of many Caribbean countries, but frequent extreme weather, rising sea temperature and rising sea level will bring bad luck to the development of tourism in these countries. According to the prediction of meteorological experts, under the scenario of global warming of 2 ℃, the number of strong hurricanes in the Caribbean will increase by 40% in the future, twice the current average, and the tourism industry in the Caribbean will be under great pressure. In addition, according to the assessment of the United Nations panel on climate change, even if the sea level rise in the 21st century is controlled within 1 meter, 60% of the tourism infrastructure in the Caribbean Sea area will be damaged, and airports and ports will be submerged by the rising sea water. Low lying Caribbean countries are most vulnerable to climate change. According to the statistics of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, at present, more than 27% of the population in Latin America live in coastal areas, of which 6% ~ 8% live in high-risk or extremely high-risk areas vulnerable to coastal meteorological disasters. According to the research of the world bank, by 2050, coastal floods caused by sea-level rise may cause an average annual loss of US $940 million to US $1.2 billion in the 22 largest coastal cities in Latin America. Glaciers are an important source of fresh water for water, power generation, agricultural production and ecosystem protection in Latin America. Since 2010, with the increase of seasonal and annual temperatures and the significant decrease of annual precipitation in Latin America, the loss of Andean glaciers is accelerating. World Bank research shows that if the global warming trend continues, many tropical glaciers in the Andes will disappear within 20 years, which will not only threaten the agricultural irrigation and water supply of about 77 million people in the region, but also reduce the amount of hydropower. Countries that mainly rely on hydropower, such as Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador, will be seriously affected. The impact of climate change on transportation is not only reflected in the rise of sea level, which may inundate airports and ports, but also the normal operation of roads, railways, navigation and aviation caused by floods, landslides, mudslides and avalanches caused by extreme weather. In Panama, for example, drought and unstable rainfall have affected its main economic driver and source of income, the Panama Canal. In 2020, due to drought and water shortage, the Panama Canal had to reduce the daily booking of ships and impose a "fresh water" fee on ships. As Latin American countries rely heavily on waterway transportation for trade, the threat of climate change to transportation will become more prominent. Green recovery has become a new highlight of post epidemic policies in Latin America Since 2020, many Latin American countries have taken adaptation to climate change and inclusive growth as the core of economic adjustment plans, and green recovery has become a new highlight of post epidemic policies of major Latin American economies. At the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference, Brazil announced that it would increase the greenhouse gas emission reduction target in 2030 from 43% to 50%, and promised to advance the target of zero illegal deforestation from 2030 to 2028. The Brazilian Ministry of economy and the Ministry of environment jointly launched the "green growth plan", which plans to use public and private investment with a total scale of about 411 billion reais (about US $81.2 billion) to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of the Brazilian economy. Forest protection, low-carbon agriculture, renewable energy, urban transportation, logistics, green infrastructure, ecotourism, public health, waste management and communication technology are the main areas of concern of the plan. Colombia has updated its "nationally owned contribution (NDC)" target and is ambitiously committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 51 per cent by 2030 (compared with a previous target of 30 per cent). In order to promote energy transformation, the government has proposed a total of 27 renewable energy and transmission projects, including 9 wind energy, 5 solar energy, 3 geothermal energy and 1 hydrogen energy projects and 9 transmission lines. The total planned investment is more than 16 trillion pesos (about US $4.54 billion). It also plans to increase the consumption of electric vehicles and natural gas vehicles, and achieve the goal of reducing the demand for liquid fuels, diesel and gasoline by 20% by 2050. Chile has also updated its NDC target and advanced the carbon peak time from 2030 to 2025. At present, Chile is committed to eliminating coal and oil production capacity and reducing its dependence on imported fossil fuels. Chile has always been a leader in renewable energy policies in Latin America and a global investment destination for solar and wind energy. In 2020, Chile's hydropower has been close to 45% of the total power generation. At present, Chile's main policy goal is to ensure that 70% of electricity comes from renewable energy by 2030. In addition to hydropower, the remaining 25% of renewable energy will be achieved mainly through wind and solar energy. Uruguay proposes to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030. This target is earlier than 2050 proposed by most developed economies (such as EU, UK, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, etc.), which shows Uruguay's ambition in addressing climate change and sustainable development. At present, the green transformation of Uruguay's economy is mainly concentrated in three areas: first, smart agriculture, which increases food production and reduces carbon emissions through sustainable production methods; Second, clean energy production will continue to tap the development potential of hydropower, wind energy, solar energy and biomass energy. Transportation (especially urban buses and small vehicles) will become the key to the transformation of electric energy layout; Third, promote the long-term sustainable development of ecotourism and tourism. Costa Rica seeks to become a zero carbon country through the development of clean energy technologies. The country's clean energy power generation has exceeded 98% for seven consecutive years. In 2019, with its efforts in protecting the natural environment and addressing climate change, Costa Rica was awarded the highest environmental protection honor "earth Guardian Award" by the United Nations. At present, the country is continuing to implement the decarbonization plan. The goal is to achieve 100% renewable energy power supply by 2030, 70% electrification of buses and taxis by 2035 and 100% electrification by 2050. The Argentine government also announced the establishment of a free trade zone in R í o Negro province in December 2021 to promote the development of a green and low-carbon economy. Fortescue company of Australia announced that it plans to invest US $8.4 billion to build a green hydrogen plant in the free trade zone. It is estimated that the annual green hydrogen production capacity will reach 2.2 million tons by 2030, and will generate 15500 direct jobs and 40000 indirect jobs. China Latin America green trade has great prospects The urgency of dealing with climate change in Latin America, the difficulty of economic recovery after the epidemic and the determination of major countries to carry out low-carbon transformation have created new opportunities for China Latin America green economic and trade cooperation. Renewable energy development, climate smart agriculture, flexible city construction and green product trade are key areas worthy of attention. Renewable energy development Latin America is rich in solar energy, wind energy, hydro energy, geothermal energy and biomass energy resources, but insufficient funds and backward technology restrict the development of renewable energy. The epidemic has brought a heavy burden on the finances of Latin American countries. The funds available for green development in the post epidemic economic stimulus plan are stretched, accounting for only 14.5%, lower than the global average of 19%. Although Brazil, Colombia and other countries have ambitious green development commitments, the ultimate goal is still a question mark. China has a strong capital base and has formed a relatively complete technical industry system. Low wind speed wind power technology ranks among the top in the world. The hydropower field has the world's largest independent design and manufacturing capacity of one million kilowatt water turbine units. Photovoltaic power generation technology has been rapidly iterated and refreshed the world record of battery conversion efficiency for many times. The green recovery plans of Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Costa Rica and other countries provide important opportunities for Chinese enterprises to enter Latin America. With the rise of green hydrogen boom, there are bright prospects for further exploration of China Latin America green hydrogen cooperation on the basis of renewable energy cooperation. Climate Intelligent Agriculture Climate smart agriculture, advocated by the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, will be the main direction of agricultural low-carbon transformation in Latin America. China Latin America cooperation in climate smart agriculture can be divided into the following three directions. First, the intelligent management of agricultural production. For example, China's advanced technologies such as Internet of things, big data and cloud platform are applied to Latin American field management on a large scale, so as to realize the early warning of meteorological disasters and the intelligent monitoring of temperature and humidity, soil environment, water resources, diseases and pests and even the storage, transportation and processing of agricultural products. Second, agricultural science and technology cooperation guided by improving total factor productivity. For example, combine China's agricultural technology with Latin American biological resources to jointly develop new crop varieties with high temperature resistance, strong light and ability, outstanding comprehensive resistance and wide adaptability. Third, the construction and application of new energy agricultural infrastructure. Such as using solar energy technology to develop indoor vegetable cultivation, and building a three-dimensional new photovoltaic fishery with photovoltaic power generation in the upper layer and aquaculture in the lower layer. Flexible city construction Climate change poses a severe test to the ecosystem of Latin American coastal cities. At present, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago in the Caribbean are strengthening the construction of resilient cities with the support of the United Nations Environment Programme to improve the response capacity to climate disasters. Latin American countries have potential demand for green infrastructure construction such as water supply and drainage, flood control and waterlogging prevention, low-carbon buildings and coastal defense projects. At present, the infrastructure cooperation between China and Latin America is mainly concentrated in the fields of transportation, power, communication and so on. With the gradual emergence of urban vulnerability in Latin America under climate change, there are important cooperation opportunities in the construction of flexible cities between China and Latin America. In the future, more Latin American cities may incorporate the medium and long-term impact of climate change into their infrastructure planning, design and approval. For Chinese enterprises, paying full attention to the green and flexible demands in Latin American urban construction in investment is undoubtedly an important magic weapon to improve the success rate. Green product trade China is one of the world's largest producers and exporters of green products. At present, among China's exports to Latin American countries, green products account for only 6.3%, and about half of the trade volume flows to Brazil and Mexico. With the launch of green recovery plans in many Latin American countries, China's green technologies and green products are expected to obtain export opportunities in more Latin American countries. Under the severe challenge of climate change, Latin America maintains strong demand for low-carbon products that help reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Chinese enterprises should actively explore the green market in Latin America, increase the export of green trade products that meet the needs of low-carbon transformation of Latin American economy, such as renewable energy equipment and new energy vehicles, build a China Latin America green value chain through low-carbon technical cooperation, and jointly promote the quality improvement and upgrading of bilateral trade. (author: Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce) Source: import and export manager In this article, except for the pictures indicating the source, the rest are from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 03/25

  • Sudden! Biden announced a ban on oil imports from Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States! Will crude oil flow to China?
    It is reported that on March 8 local time, the White House issued a statement on its website, saying that US President Biden officially signed an executive order prohibiting the United States from importing oil, liquefied natural gas and coal from Russia. The executive order includes: banning the United States from importing Russian crude oil and some petroleum products, liquefied natural gas and coal. Last year, the United States imported nearly 700000 barrels of crude oil and refined oil from Russia every day. This measure will cost Russia billions of dollars in revenue every year; Banning new U.S. investment in Russia's energy sector; The United States is prohibited from providing funds or support to foreign companies investing in energy production in Russia. At the same time, Biden said he would reduce the United States' dependence on foreign oil and fossil fuels: he promised to release more than 90 million barrels of oil from strategic oil reserves this fiscal year. In addition, on March 8 local time, the UK announced that it would gradually stop importing oil and corresponding petroleum products from Russia by the end of this year. The UK said it was giving the market and enterprises enough time to find import substitutes accounting for 8% of the demand. On Tuesday, international oil prices rose sharply. Oil prices in New York and London Brent rose by more than 7% at one time. As of the closing, the futures price of light crude oil for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at US $123.70 a barrel, up 3.6%; London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery closed at US $127.98 a barrel, up 3.87%. According to Reuters, crude oil prices rose again on Wednesday after the US announced the ban. The latest report of the global benchmark Brent crude oil was US $131.39 a barrel, up 2.66% on the same day. Russia warned earlier this week that if the West blocked its oil exports, oil prices could soar to $300 a barrel and could close the main gas pipeline to Germany. With the Russian oil ban "on the table", traders predict that oil prices may reach $200 a barrel by the end of this month, more than double the price at the beginning of the year. Yesterday, the price of low sulfur fuel oil increased by another $100 per ton, and has increased by one third since the end of February to about $1000 per ton, which has increased the cost of operating super large container ships on the Asia Nordic round-trip route by millions of dollars. Although shipping companies have reported huge profits in the past year, the surge in fuel costs will force shipping companies to readjust their performance expectations for the whole of 2022. Of course, shipping companies are also likely to recover costs in the form of emergency fuel surcharges and reduce their financial impact more through slow navigation. A week ago, it was reported that the carrier would charge an emergency fuel surcharge within a few weeks. At the same time, shipping companies also began to worry about the decline in demand. Not in the trans Pacific region, there was no sign of weakening demand from American consumers, but in Asia Europe trade routes. Even before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, there were signs that the demand of European consumers began to slow down because they were struggling with higher energy costs and other inflationary pressures. In addition, some market analysts said that given that the west is leaving the Russian economy, China may take advantage of Russia's discounted energy supply and investment opportunities. China has opened its market to all Russian wheat exports and is expected to continue to boost Russian crude oil - possibly below the global spot price, which has reached extreme levels. China's refiners will try to obtain low-cost alternatives to crude oil, which will enable western countries to obtain low-cost alternatives. "A lot of oil and gas will flow out of the European market, first to China," Tatiana mitrova of Colombia's global energy research center told the New York Times Source: sohang.com In this article, except for the pictures indicating the source, the rest are from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 03/09

  • Russian and Ukrainian currencies plummeted! RMB approaches 6.3 mark
    As geopolitical risks continued to rise, the currencies of Russia and Ukraine depreciated significantly. According to market data, as of February 23, the exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar fell by about 5.8% and grifner against the US dollar fell by more than 4.4%. On February 24, the exchange rate of the Russian Ruble plunged sharply, and the exchange rate of the Russian Ruble against the US dollar once fell to 1:86, the lowest record since January 2016. The ruble fell to 1:99.99 against the euro, the lowest record since December 2014. On the same day, the global market was in turmoil, and the Russian stock market was once blown. On February 22, US President Biden announced the latest sanctions against Russia and decided to implement comprehensive blockade and sanctions against Russia's two major financial institutions. After the sanctions take effect, Russia will not be able to conduct lending transactions in the US and European markets, nor can it raise funds. In addition to the United States, the European Union, Britain, Germany, Canada, Japan and Australia have also successively announced their decision to impose sanctions on Russia. For the United States and Europe, expelling Russia from the global Interbank Financial Communication Association (Swift) system will be one of the most severe financial measures they can take, which will damage the Russian economy immediately and in the long run. This can exclude Russia from most international financial transactions. On February 26, CCTV reported that on February 26 local time, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmitry kuleba sent a message through the social media platform that Cyprus has stated that it does not object to excluding Russia from the swift system. Just as Russia launched an attack on Ukraine, western countries such as Europe and the United States began to consider further sanctions against Russia. These sanctions may include preventing Russia from acquiring key technologies, such as chips and semiconductors, and even disabling the swift payment service system that supports most international remittances. On the issue of sanctions against Russia, Germany, Italy, Hungary and Cyprus have been opposed. On the 26th, Cyprus, a small Mediterranean country and one of the 27 member states of the European Union, decided to support the expulsion of Russia from the swift system. Swift is a non-profit international cooperation organization between international banks. It is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium. At the same time, it has established exchange centers in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, New York, Singapore and Hong Kong, China. It is also the communication system in the US dollar international settlement system. At the same time, it is also the supervision organization of US dollar cross-border settlement, which supervises US dollar cross-border settlement. Once a country is expelled from swift, it will be isolated from the international financial and trading system and cannot carry out international trade and financial transactions. Most of the settlement of Global trade is carried out through the above-mentioned financial institutions, which are also the largest financial institutions in the world. As long as it is settled in US dollars, it is almost inevitable to use swift. Expelling Russia from swift means that Russia is excluded from the international financial and trade system, and Russia's foreign trade (especially with European and American countries) may be completely suspended.?? If swift completely excludes Russia, it will have three impacts: first, Russia's cross-border financial channels will face the risk of paralysis, Russian domestic financial institutions and overseas peers will not be able to carry out payment, capital and other businesses, and international assets will be substantially frozen; Second, international investment and financing are blocked, and Russia will have to completely bid farewell to the international market and exacerbate Russian capital outflow and financial shock; Third, foreign trade, international exchanges of enterprises and even foreign-related income and expenditure of residents will be interrupted. Agence France Presse, Brussels, February 24: in view of the opposition of Italy, Hungary, Cyprus and other countries, as of Thursday evening, the EU was not ready to kick Russia out of the global interbank payment system of the global banking financial Telecommunications Association (Swift). Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Thursday to ban Russian banks from using swift global interbank payment system. Later in the day, an anonymous European diplomat told Agence France Presse that because many member states, especially Italy, Hungary and Cyprus, held objections, this possibility is not currently in the EU's option. German Chancellor Schultz also said that "what is important now is to make a decision on the sanctions measures prepared for many weeks, and the rest should be left to the time of need in the future". Luxembourg Prime Minister bertelle believes that the EU sanctions against Russia should be linked with the United States and Britain, "otherwise, the EU has issued sanctions, and the Russians may continue to do business in London or Switzerland". Borrelli, the EU high representative for foreign and security policy, believes that "this matter should be decided by each head of state and government". On the same day, Biden pointed out that kicking Russia out of the payment system is still "a feasible solution". But he acknowledged that the EU did not support Ukraine's request. Washington (Reuters) - the voice of excluding Russia from the swift system is rising, or a decision may be made in the next few days. Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union said on Friday that they may take action in a new round of sanctions to exclude Russia from the swift global interbank payment system. Us and European officials said the move could be implemented in the coming days after German and Italian officials softened their positions. The two European countries with reservations had previously opposed kicking Russia out of the world's major international payment networks. Roberta metsola, speaker of the European Parliament, said on Friday that banning Russia from entering swift may be part of a new round of sanctions. Italy, which has been reluctant to take this measure, said on Friday that it would not veto the proposal to ban Russia and promised to continue to cooperate with EU partners. German finance minister Christian Lindner said on Friday that Germany is also open to excluding Russia from swift, but the impact on its economy must be calculated. Germany is the country with the largest trade scale with Russia in the EU. Josep Borrell, head of EU foreign policy, said the decision on swift could be made "in the next few days". A spokesman for the White House said that Biden would still prefer to take an option to discuss with Russia's allies from swift, and that Biden would still prefer to take an option from the White House. Another U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly said that if Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, falls, the west is expected to have further sanctions. Western officials now believe that the Japanese occupation could happen in a few days. According to the website information of Russian National Association rossswift, Russia should be the country with the second largest number of users of swift global interbank payment system after the United States. About 300 Russian banks and institutions use this payment system, and more than half of Russian credit institutions use this system. Reuters earlier analyzed that some EU member states are unwilling to immediately exclude Russia from the swift global interbank payment system because it will kill 1000 enemies and lose 800, making it difficult for European creditors to recover their funds. In any case, Russia is building another payment system to deal with the crisis. Under the counterattack of "Russian bear", is swift still a "financial nuclear button"? By 2014, most financial institutions, including the Central Bank of Russia, had access to the swift system and established close ties with the swift system. After experiencing the pain of the "swift sanctions" incident, Russians have to think carefully about how to remove the "sword of Damocles" hanging overhead. In 2015, the Russian International Payment System issued the first batch of bank cards "milk cards" that meet the standards of Russia's domestic payment system. Subsequently, Russia quickly established its own payment system( МИР) And financial information exchange system( СПФС) , It has fundamentally laid the foundation of Russia's de dollarization financial infrastructure. In fact, now swift may be just a messaging system. With it, settlement will be much more convenient, but without it, transaction is also possible, but it is a little clumsy. Raw materials soared: Russia's aluminum production accounted for about 6% of the world, and nickel production accounted for about 7% of the world. The tense situation has increased the supply risk of the market, and the prices of aluminum and nickel have risen sharply. On February 23, the price of nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to 25000 yuan / ton, breaking a ten-year high, the highest since 2011. Aluminum prices rose to their highest level in more than 13 years. On February 24, LME aluminum price broke through the 2008 high of US $3388, a record high, and the increase expanded to nearly 3%. Traders are worried that if the United States and Europe increase sanctions against Russia, it will affect the supply of aluminum and further push up the price of aluminum. Relevant industrial chain enterprises must pay attention to risk prevention! RMB approaches 6.3 mark On February 23, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to rise close to 6.30, rising by nearly 150 points during the day, reaching a new high of 6.3036 since April 2018. The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 6.3178 as of 16:30, up 178 points from the previous day. On the 24th, the RMB exchange rate maintained its recent strength. The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached 6.3100 yuan per US dollar, a new high since April 25, 2018. The offshore RMB exchange rate was up to 6.3072 yuan to 1 US dollar, a new high since April 30, 2018. On February 25, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was lowered by 66 basis points to 6.3346 yuan. Societe Generale research macro team believes that in the short term, the "safe haven" attribute of RMB assets will support the continued strong exchange rate, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to hit the 6.30 mark. In response to the recent strong performance of the RMB exchange rate and how to enhance the ability of foreign trade enterprises to deal with exchange rate risks, the Ministry of Commerce said that in the next step, it will continue to work with relevant departments to further promote financial institutions to enrich and improve their hedging business, optimize the RMB cross-border trade settlement environment, and help enterprises better adapt to the normal two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, Continuously improve the anti risk ability of enterprises. Source: shipping network In this article, except for the pictures indicating the source, the rest are from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 02/28

  • Focus | which overseas park is stronger? Cambodia Sihanouk port Special Economic Zone
    The Sihanouk port special economic zone (hereinafter referred to as the "West Port special economic zone"), known as the "Pro son" by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, is a double blessing this year - the regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement (RCEP) and the China Cambodia free trade agreement came into force on January 1, 2022, which means that with the support of the two free trade agreements, Cambodia's access to Chinese enterprises will be further relaxed, and China's exports to Cambodia and China's investment in Cambodia will usher in new opportunities. Since the foundation construction in February 2008, after more than ten years of development, Xigang special zone has a certain scale. As of December 2021, Xigang special zone has introduced 170 enterprises (Institutions) from China, Europe and the United States, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions, and the enterprises in the zone have realized a total investment of US $1.399 billion. Under one belt, one road initiative and the one with one belt, one road is highly suitable for Kampuchea. Under the guidance of Kampuchea's "2015 to 2025 Industrial Development Plan", the West Hong Kong Special Administrative Region will play an important role in the construction of the "overseas trade and economic cooperation zone" as the important starting point of the "one belt and one road" construction. It can be divided into three key words: the economic engine, the people's "rice bowl" and the friendship bridge. On the one hand, Xigang special zone company has built a platform for international production capacity cooperation by continuously improving the infrastructure and services in the region and improving the industrial undertaking capacity. Up to now, the industrial output value of Xigang special zone has contributed more than 50% to the local economy. In 2021, enterprises in the region achieved a total import and export volume of US $2.234 billion, an increase of 42.75% year-on-year, injecting strong momentum into local development. On the other hand, through the introduction of international enterprises, Xigang special zone has created nearly 30000 local jobs, and 70% of families in di BOLUO Renault County alone work in the special zone. At the same time, the development of the special zone has also driven the development of surrounding businesses and created more opportunities for local people to get rid of poverty and become rich. It is worth mentioning that in the development and construction, Xigang special zone company has always practiced the "win-win" concept of establishing win-win relations with shareholders, employees, customers, suppliers, partners, government, environment and Society (community). While developing the economy, it will benefit the surrounding areas and make the surrounding people feel a real sense of gain. This is mainly reflected in the following four aspects: First, adhere to green development. In the development process of the West Port special zone, the ecological environment should be maintained as much as possible, so that construction and greening can be carried out at the same time. They have built separate drainage pipes and canals for rain and sewage in the park to treat industrial and domestic sewage before discharge, so as to maintain the ecological security of surrounding water sources. At the same time, the largest standard sewage treatment plant in Cambodia has been built to ensure that the sewage in the park meets the discharge standard and protect the environment. Second, strictly abide by local laws and regulations. From the beginning of its construction, the West Hong Kong Special Zone has hired local lawyers as legal advisers to provide legal support all year round; With the support of Jiangsu Provincial Department of justice and Wuxi Municipal People's government, Jiangsu manxiu law firm has established a legal consultation platform to provide professional legal services; From time to time, relevant units are invited to hold legal consultation meetings and tax policy interpretation meetings to guide enterprises in the region to comply with laws and regulations. Third, strengthen the training of local talents. Including arranging staff to use the rest time at night to teach Chinese free of charge in local schools at the initial stage of construction; Two groups of outstanding Cambodian youths have been funded to go to China Hongdou University and Wuxi business school for further study; Jointly carry out training with Wuxi business school. After 21 sessions of training, 70000 people have received training; With the Cambodian Ministry of labor and vocational training and Wuxi business school, the Sino Cambodian Friendship Institute of technology in Sihanouk Province, built with the assistance of the Chinese government and located in the West Hong Kong Special Zone, has recruited and trained more than 2000 students; Jointly bid with Wuxi business school to host Sihanouk port business school, which has officially opened in December 2019. Fourth, take the initiative to fulfill social responsibility. The company donated money to build local schools in 2008; Actively contribute to the Cambodian Red Cross; Donate water and rice to local victims and poor people; Donate money to help students, donate school supplies to students with excellent character and learning, and mobilize employees to carry out "one-to-one" to help poor students; The Cambodian China Friendship public welfare volunteer alliance was established to mobilize more people to carry out activities to help the weak and the poor. In particular, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic occurred after the outbreak of Kampuchea, according to the local demand for epidemic prevention materials, the West Port special zone company donated donations to various schools and departments, and donated millions of masks to the Kampuchea Red Cross with the red bean group. It was highly appreciated by Hong Sen, the Prime Minister and the president of the Kampuchea Red Cross, Vinrani. In view of the formal entry into force of the China Cambodia free trade agreement and RCEP, Cambodia's investment environment will be further optimized, especially the improvement of the overall infrastructure of Sihanouk Province, which have brought new opportunities to the development of Xigang special economic zone. Although the epidemic has brought difficulties in one way or another to the operation and investment promotion of the special zone, Xigang special zone has continuously adjusted the prevention and control measures according to the development of the international and Cambodian epidemic situation, made full use of the network platform, and actively carried out "cloud investigation" and "cloud investment promotion". Especially in the first 10 months of last year, the trade volume between China and Cambodia reached US $10.98 billion, an increase of 45.9% year-on-year. The trade volume target of US $10 billion set by the leaders of the two countries in 2023 was achieved ahead of schedule, which further boosted the confidence of enterprises in the development of Xigang special zone. Next, the company of Xigang special zone will focus on promoting the "three modernizations and three integration" and enabling the construction of version 2.0 of the special zone, that is, selecting the best business, focusing on leading enterprises and key projects, improving the industrial chain and promoting the industrialization of the park; Strengthen international investment, promote the internationalization of talents and build an international park; Strive to be listed as soon as possible and realize the capitalization of the park; Accelerate the integration of industry and city, and improve the supporting service functions of cities such as residence, education, medical treatment and entertainment; Promote the integration of industry and education, support the operation of Sino Cambodian Friendship Institute of technology in Sihanouk province and Sihanouk port business school in the region, and provide talent support for industrial development; Implement the integration of corporate development and social responsibility, continue to take root in the local area with the concept of "win-win" and enhance the sense of gain of the local people. At the same time, give full play to the platform role of the West Hong Kong Special Zone, actively explore the development of cross-border e-commerce, promote Cambodia's high-quality agricultural products to the Chinese market, and further promote China Cambodia economic and trade cooperation. In the future, Xigang special zone hopes to attract enterprises from hardware machinery, building materials, home furnishings, auto parts and tires, new photovoltaic materials, fine chemicals and other industries. According to the investment law of the royal government of Cambodia and the law on the administration of the special zone, enterprises settled in the West Port special zone can enjoy a series of preferential tax policies, regardless of countries, such as the exemption of import tax on machinery and equipment, building materials, spare parts and raw materials used by enterprises for production; Up to 6 to 9 years of profit tax exemption; The export of products is exempted from export tax; Production equipment and building materials are exempted from value-added tax; Industries serving the export market and raw materials are exempted from value-added tax. In addition to enjoying a series of preferential policies, Xigang special zone will also provide enterprises with "one-stop" administrative examination and approval services, human resources services, training services, financial services, legal advisory services, etc. At present, in the overall planning area of 11.13 square kilometers, there are functional blocks such as urban supporting area, industrial park and comprehensive area of Xigang special zone. Among them, the industrial park is divided into industrial phase I and industrial phase II. At present, the first industrial phase has been completed, and the urban supporting area and the second industrial phase are under construction. When the West Port special zone is completed, it will become an ecological model park with complete supporting functions that can attract 300 enterprises to settle in, drive the employment of 80000 to 100000 industrial workers. Source: China trade news reporter Zhang Fan In this article, except for the pictures indicating the source, the rest are from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.

    2022 02/16

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