In recent days, global commodity markets have suffered twists and turns, with most commodities falling. The Us Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hike sparked a sharp reaction and market fears of a recession are rising.
What is the future of commodities? What are the domestic implications? Experts said the us should be on guard against the spillover effects of the rapid interest rate hike and safeguard the hard-won overall situation of stable growth and supply and price stability.
Crude oil and agricultural prices remain strong.
Have commodity prices "peaked"? Some believe that commodity prices have peaked due to high inflation in major developed economies, geopolitical conflicts and COVID-19, further imbalance between supply and demand, rising energy prices, a weak global economy and weak demand expectations for industrial goods. Another view is that commodities and oil prices remain bullish, arguing that "most commodities are in a long-term uptrend".
Although the Fed raised interest rates more than expected, the monthly spread structure of the crude oil market continued to be strong, and the oil price continued to have a strong performance. Yang an, head of energy and chemical research of Haitong Futures Co., Ltd., said that at present, the overseas market is facing high inflation pressure, and cooling the oil market has become an important task for governments of various countries. The United States has made frequent moves recently, and may also introduce some cooling measures, which is the uncertainty faced by the current market.
From the domestic market, the Wenhua commodity index has started a periodic decline since June 9. Crude oil plate, oil plate, grain plate, etc. are among the few closing and rising plates. At present, crude oil and agricultural products are still two "anti falling" plates.
Shitou, deputy director of the Research Institute of Shanghai Stock Exchange futures, believes that the US dollar index has reached a high point and will exert a suppressive effect on bulk commodities in the medium and long term. Crude oil and agricultural products are affected by changes in the global commodity supply chain, especially the supply side contraction caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The peak and decline time is later.
Some experts believe that as long as there is no obvious downward trend in oil prices and agricultural products, it is difficult for commodities to have an inflection point.
Increasing differentiation trend of different varieties.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the main indicators of China's economy recovered in May. The resumption of work and production of enterprises has been steadily promoted. Benefiting from a series of policies and measures, the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first may rose again, and the manufacturing investment increased by 10.6% year-on-year.
Against this background, the domestic bulk commodity market is mixed, and the trend differentiation of various varieties is increasing. "Commodity prices are not only related to the domestic economic cycle, but also affected by the global economic cycle. Under the interweaving of internal and external factors, the market may usher in a wide range of shocks." Caoyanghui, director of Nanhua Futures Research Institute, said.
Overall, the trend of Nanhua commodity index is still strong, and the bulk commodity market has reached a historical high. In terms of plates, after the precious metal plate has experienced a periodic bottom and reverse rise, the internal driving force is insufficient, and there will not be a strong trend in the short term.
The confidence in stabilizing the economic market is clear, and the repair of demand may drive the non-ferrous plate upward. Xiao Jing, chief researcher of non-ferrous metals at the national investment Anxin Futures Research Institute, told reporters that the bull market atmosphere of non-ferrous metals began to differentiate, and the independent supply and demand pricing of various varieties played a greater role. In the context of maintaining supply and price stability, the supply of most domestic non-ferrous metals will continue to be stable.
Qiuyuecheng, assistant director of Ever-bright Futures Research Institute and director of black commodity research, said that the steel price fell significantly, and the re-bar inventory was at the highest level in the same period in history, which significantly suppressed the steel price trend. However, the domestic pig iron output has rebounded significantly, and the demand for raw materials by steel mills is at a high level. Therefore, the price of raw materials is obviously stronger than that of steel, which also puts pressure on the profits of steel mills.
The corn market is in sufficient supply at different stages. Wanchengzhi, a researcher of Shanghai Research Institute of Hengli futures, told the reporter that at present, the downstream consumption of corn is stable, the start-up of starch plants is stable, the feed output is stable and rising, and the corn inventory of deep-processing enterprises is lower than that of the same period last year.
Help stabilize the economic market.
The fluctuation of commodity prices has brought great pressure to real enterprises. It is an important task for the futures market to better serve the real economy and play a positive role in maintaining supply and stabilizing prices of bulk commodities.
Since the beginning of this year, China's major futures exchanges have resolutely implemented the deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to maintain supply and price stability, adopted a series of targeted risk control and service measures, improved the quality of market operation, promoted the smooth circulation of futures and cash, broadened service channels, provided futures solutions for maintaining supply and price stability of bulk commodities, and helped stabilize the economic market.
The relevant person in charge of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange said that the futures market is of great significance to promote the sustainable operation of enterprises and ensure the stable development of the real economy. Focusing on the supply of innovative varieties and guided by the cultivation and service of industrial enterprises, Zheng Shang strives to expand the breadth and depth of serving the real economy.
The pilot project of "futures price stabilization order" of Shanghai Futures Exchange has become a highlight. Last year, the previous period Exchange carried out a pilot cooperation with Baowu group and its subsidiary ouyeyunshang on "futures stable price orders" for ferrous metal varieties, providing physical enterprises with spot supply guarantee through Baowu group and providing physical enterprises with tools to reduce the risk of price fluctuation. This year, the project of "stable price order for futures" was extended to such energy-saving varieties as petroleum asphalt and low sulfur fuel oil. Through "future cash linkage", enterprises were encouraged to use option tools to hedge risks, and help physical enterprises in the oil and gas industry chain resume production and operate steadily.
Liu Yong, general manager of the current business planning center of Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical Co., Ltd., said that under the environment of sharp fluctuations in the prices of energy and chemical bulk commodities, "futures stable price orders" can enable enterprises to boldly and confidently arrange production and operation plans without worrying about the impact of future price fluctuations, and give entity enterprises a "reassurance".
Dalian Commodity Exchange provides more specialized, refined and featured futures services for enterprises while monitoring the operation of grain, iron ore, pigs and other bulk commodity markets.
By the end of May this year, 94 futures and options had been listed in China, covering energy, food, metals and other important fields related to the national economy and the people's livelihood, involving more than 60 industrial chains, escorting bulk commodities worth about 22trillion yuan, and weaving a relatively perfect risk management network for entity enterprises. Wang Ying, vice president of China Futures Association, suggested that physical enterprises can effectively avoid the risks caused by many uncertain factors in the production and operation process and realize the optimization and upgrading of the enterprise's business model by scientifically using the price discovery, hedging, risk hedging and other functions of the futures market.
Source: Economic Daily
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