On February 24, the exchange rate of the Russian Ruble plunged sharply, and the exchange rate of the Russian Ruble against the US dollar once fell to 1:86, the lowest record since January 2016. The ruble fell to 1:99.99 against the euro, the lowest record since December 2014. On the same day, the global market was in turmoil, and the Russian stock market was once blown.
On February 22, US President Biden announced the latest sanctions against Russia and decided to implement comprehensive blockade and sanctions against Russia's two major financial institutions. After the sanctions take effect, Russia will not be able to conduct lending transactions in the US and European markets, nor can it raise funds. In addition to the United States, the European Union, Britain, Germany, Canada, Japan and Australia have also successively announced their decision to impose sanctions on Russia.
For the United States and Europe, expelling Russia from the global Interbank Financial Communication Association (Swift) system will be one of the most severe financial measures they can take, which will damage the Russian economy immediately and in the long run. This can exclude Russia from most international financial transactions.
On February 26, CCTV reported that on February 26 local time, Ukrainian foreign minister Dmitry kuleba sent a message through the social media platform that Cyprus has stated that it does not object to excluding Russia from the swift system.
Just as Russia launched an attack on Ukraine, western countries such as Europe and the United States began to consider further sanctions against Russia. These sanctions may include preventing Russia from acquiring key technologies, such as chips and semiconductors, and even disabling the swift payment service system that supports most international remittances.
On the issue of sanctions against Russia, Germany, Italy, Hungary and Cyprus have been opposed. On the 26th, Cyprus, a small Mediterranean country and one of the 27 member states of the European Union, decided to support the expulsion of Russia from the swift system.
Swift is a non-profit international cooperation organization between international banks. It is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium. At the same time, it has established exchange centers in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, New York, Singapore and Hong Kong, China. It is also the communication system in the US dollar international settlement system. At the same time, it is also the supervision organization of US dollar cross-border settlement, which supervises US dollar cross-border settlement.
Once a country is expelled from swift, it will be isolated from the international financial and trading system and cannot carry out international trade and financial transactions. Most of the settlement of Global trade is carried out through the above-mentioned financial institutions, which are also the largest financial institutions in the world. As long as it is settled in US dollars, it is almost inevitable to use swift. Expelling Russia from swift means that Russia is excluded from the international financial and trade system, and Russia's foreign trade (especially with European and American countries) may be completely suspended.??
If swift completely excludes Russia, it will have three impacts: first, Russia's cross-border financial channels will face the risk of paralysis, Russian domestic financial institutions and overseas peers will not be able to carry out payment, capital and other businesses, and international assets will be substantially frozen; Second, international investment and financing are blocked, and Russia will have to completely bid farewell to the international market and exacerbate Russian capital outflow and financial shock; Third, foreign trade, international exchanges of enterprises and even foreign-related income and expenditure of residents will be interrupted.
Agence France Presse, Brussels, February 24: in view of the opposition of Italy, Hungary, Cyprus and other countries, as of Thursday evening, the EU was not ready to kick Russia out of the global interbank payment system of the global banking financial Telecommunications Association (Swift).
Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Thursday to ban Russian banks from using swift global interbank payment system. Later in the day, an anonymous European diplomat told Agence France Presse that because many member states, especially Italy, Hungary and Cyprus, held objections, this possibility is not currently in the EU's option.
German Chancellor Schultz also said that "what is important now is to make a decision on the sanctions measures prepared for many weeks, and the rest should be left to the time of need in the future". Luxembourg Prime Minister bertelle believes that the EU sanctions against Russia should be linked with the United States and Britain, "otherwise, the EU has issued sanctions, and the Russians may continue to do business in London or Switzerland".
Borrelli, the EU high representative for foreign and security policy, believes that "this matter should be decided by each head of state and government". On the same day, Biden pointed out that kicking Russia out of the payment system is still "a feasible solution". But he acknowledged that the EU did not support Ukraine's request.
Washington (Reuters) - the voice of excluding Russia from the swift system is rising, or a decision may be made in the next few days. Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union said on Friday that they may take action in a new round of sanctions to exclude Russia from the swift global interbank payment system.
Us and European officials said the move could be implemented in the coming days after German and Italian officials softened their positions. The two European countries with reservations had previously opposed kicking Russia out of the world's major international payment networks.
Roberta metsola, speaker of the European Parliament, said on Friday that banning Russia from entering swift may be part of a new round of sanctions. Italy, which has been reluctant to take this measure, said on Friday that it would not veto the proposal to ban Russia and promised to continue to cooperate with EU partners. German finance minister Christian Lindner said on Friday that Germany is also open to excluding Russia from swift, but the impact on its economy must be calculated. Germany is the country with the largest trade scale with Russia in the EU.
Josep Borrell, head of EU foreign policy, said the decision on swift could be made "in the next few days". A spokesman for the White House said that Biden would still prefer to take an option to discuss with Russia's allies from swift, and that Biden would still prefer to take an option from the White House. Another U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly said that if Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, falls, the west is expected to have further sanctions. Western officials now believe that the Japanese occupation could happen in a few days.
According to the website information of Russian National Association rossswift, Russia should be the country with the second largest number of users of swift global interbank payment system after the United States. About 300 Russian banks and institutions use this payment system, and more than half of Russian credit institutions use this system. Reuters earlier analyzed that some EU member states are unwilling to immediately exclude Russia from the swift global interbank payment system because it will kill 1000 enemies and lose 800, making it difficult for European creditors to recover their funds. In any case, Russia is building another payment system to deal with the crisis.
Under the counterattack of "Russian bear", is swift still a "financial nuclear button"?
By 2014, most financial institutions, including the Central Bank of Russia, had access to the swift system and established close ties with the swift system. After experiencing the pain of the "swift sanctions" incident, Russians have to think carefully about how to remove the "sword of Damocles" hanging overhead.
In 2015, the Russian International Payment System issued the first batch of bank cards "milk cards" that meet the standards of Russia's domestic payment system. Subsequently, Russia quickly established its own payment system( МИР) And financial information exchange system( СПФС) , It has fundamentally laid the foundation of Russia's de dollarization financial infrastructure.
In fact, now swift may be just a messaging system. With it, settlement will be much more convenient, but without it, transaction is also possible, but it is a little clumsy.
Raw materials soared: Russia's aluminum production accounted for about 6% of the world, and nickel production accounted for about 7% of the world. The tense situation has increased the supply risk of the market, and the prices of aluminum and nickel have risen sharply.
On February 23, the price of nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose to 25000 yuan / ton, breaking a ten-year high, the highest since 2011. Aluminum prices rose to their highest level in more than 13 years. On February 24, LME aluminum price broke through the 2008 high of US $3388, a record high, and the increase expanded to nearly 3%. Traders are worried that if the United States and Europe increase sanctions against Russia, it will affect the supply of aluminum and further push up the price of aluminum.
Relevant industrial chain enterprises must pay attention to risk prevention!
RMB approaches 6.3 mark
On February 23, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to rise close to 6.30, rising by nearly 150 points during the day, reaching a new high of 6.3036 since April 2018. The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar closed at 6.3178 as of 16:30, up 178 points from the previous day.
On the 24th, the RMB exchange rate maintained its recent strength. The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached 6.3100 yuan per US dollar, a new high since April 25, 2018. The offshore RMB exchange rate was up to 6.3072 yuan to 1 US dollar, a new high since April 30, 2018.
On February 25, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar was lowered by 66 basis points to 6.3346 yuan.
Societe Generale research macro team believes that in the short term, the "safe haven" attribute of RMB assets will support the continued strong exchange rate, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to hit the 6.30 mark.
In response to the recent strong performance of the RMB exchange rate and how to enhance the ability of foreign trade enterprises to deal with exchange rate risks, the Ministry of Commerce said that in the next step, it will continue to work with relevant departments to further promote financial institutions to enrich and improve their hedging business, optimize the RMB cross-border trade settlement environment, and help enterprises better adapt to the normal two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate, Continuously improve the anti risk ability of enterprises.
Source: shipping network
In this article, except for the pictures indicating the source, the rest are from online public channels, and their source cannot be identified. If there is a copyright dispute, please contact our company.