A few days ago, the US "chip bill" was passed by both houses of Congress. This bill has undergone many revisions and adjustments, and was finally named the chip and science act of 2022. It will be formally enacted after US President Biden signed it on August 9. The total amount of the bill is US $280 billion, and it will be implemented over five years. It is worth noting that the bill not only attempts to attract semiconductor enterprises to set up factories in the United States through investment subsidies, but also attempts to prevent semiconductor enterprises from increasing production in China by restricting the qualification of subsidies.
Suppress Chinese chip technology enterprises, coerce chip giants such as TSMC to invest and set up factories in the United States, and try to form a small circle of "chip Quartet alliance"... A series of "wall building" and "decoupling" practices of the United States are full of hegemonic logic and cold war thinking, which seriously disrupts the global chip supply chain.
The product of compromise between the two parties
The chip and science act of 2022 is 1054 pages long. The New York Times reported that the bill integrates economic and national security policies and aims to enhance the competitiveness of the US technology and chip industry. The report summarizes the main contents of the bill: first, provide financial support of about US $52.7 billion to the semiconductor industry, provide investment tax credit of US $24 billion to enterprises, and encourage enterprises to research, develop and manufacture chips in the United States; Second, we will provide about US $200 billion in scientific research funding in the next few years, focusing on supporting cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics and quantum computing.
"The chip and science act of 2022 is the product of compromise between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party after a long-term game between the Senate and the house of Representatives." In an interview with this newspaper, Feng Weijiang, Secretary General of the national global strategy think tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, sorted out the process of passing the bill: in June 2021, the US Senate passed the US innovation and competition act with a scale of US $250 billion, which was intended to strengthen domestic scientific and technological research and development and compete with China, but the bill was shelved in the house of Representatives. On February 4 this year, the US House of Representatives passed the US manufacturing opportunities creation and technological excellence and economic strength act of 2022 (that is, the US competition act of 2022 of the house of Representatives); On March 28, the U.S. Senate passed the 2022 U.S. create opportunities for manufacturing, technological leadership and economic strength Act (i.e. the Senate version of the 2022 U.S. Competition Act), which includes the chip and 5g emergency funding plan, the endless frontier act, the 2021 strategic competition act, the ensuring the future of the United States act, and the challenge response act. In this context, the Senate and the house of representatives need to negotiate to eliminate the differences between the two versions of the bill and launch a compromise version recognized by both parties before it can finally be submitted to the president for approval. From July 27 to 28, the Senate and the house of Representatives passed the chip and science act of 2022 with a scale of US $280 billion.
It is worth noting that the bill also contains a clause on "competition with China". The Wall Street Journal reported that the bill stipulates that if a semiconductor company that has established factories in the United States also builds or expands advanced semiconductor manufacturing plants in China or other potentially "unfriendly countries", the company will not receive subsidies under the bill.
"This bill is a manifestation that the United States continues to pan politicize and pan security economic and technological issues." Jiang Tianjiao, an associate professor of Fudan University's Development Research Institute, told this newspaper that the United States tried to support the local chip industry manufacturing and strengthen chip technology research and development through the bill, especially focusing on the research and development of innovative, high-tech and leading chips, so as to seize the leading position in the global chip industry chain in the future. In addition, some provisions of the bill restrict the chip enterprises to carry out normal economic, trade and investment activities in China, forcing relevant enterprises to choose sides between China and the United States, reflecting the deep-rooted zero sum game thinking of some people in the United States. In addition, the United States uses the so-called "chip diplomacy" to create a small circle, trying to exclude Chinese Mainland from the global chip industry chain.
"In terms of chip manufacturing, the bill reflects that in the United States, the national logic of 'safety oriented' prevails over the market logic of 'efficiency oriented'." Feng Weijiang said that the bill emphasizes providing huge subsidies to the chip industry in the United States, which is a typical differential industry support policy. Some of them restrict the normal scientific and technological cooperation between China and the United States, and use government forces to forcibly change the international division of labor in chip manufacturing. These practices violate the market law, will distort the global semiconductor supply chain, and disrupt the normal order of international trade.
Threatening chip Enterprises
The chip and science act of 2022 was passed by the Senate and the house of Representatives, which is the result of multiple factors. Feng Weijiang believes that against the background of the epidemic, the global chip production chain has been interrupted, and the United States has a serious chip shortage problem, forcing the two parties to discuss a compromise plan. After a long period of "bargaining", the differences between the two parties were basically resolved and consensus was reached on the core content of the bill. If the bill cannot be passed before the congressional recess in August, after a month's recess, the bill will face the disturbance of the mid-term election in November, and it is likely to miss the window of passage. Under the "deadline effect", the US Congress, especially the Democrats in the Senate, decided to focus on the chip issue and promote the passage of the bill.
At the height of the debate between the two parties, the American Semiconductor Industry Association and the Oxford Economic Research Institute released a report, pointing out that the semiconductor industry has a huge pulling effect on the American economy. For every worker employed by the semiconductor industry in the United States, it can indirectly support 6.7 jobs. The chip and science act of 2022 will invest US $50 billion to build a chip factory, which means that the semiconductor industry will increase 523000 jobs and US $76.3 billion of GDP between 2021 and 2026 alone.
"The bill has been brewing for a long time, and its rapid passage is not unexpected. Under the banner of reshaping the position of the United States in the global chip supply chain, improving the scientific and technological innovation capability of the United States in strategic emerging fields, and enhancing the strategic competitive advantage of the United States in China, the bill has prompted the two parties to reach an agreement." Jiang Tianjiao said that in order to promote the passage of the bill, the US government has used multiple means: borrowing the epidemic to impact the global chip supply chain and the shortage of auto chips, and wantonly playing up the threat theory of Chinese chips; Schemer, the initiator of the internal borrowing bill, has been promoted to the majority leader of the Senate. The chip bill can not only provide thousands of new jobs for the United States, but also enable the United States to regain its leadership in science and technology; After that, the American chip companies persuaded the Democratic Party of the United States to abandon the tradition of government non intervention in the economy, and then won the cross party support of 17 Republicans, including Republican Party leader McConnell, through the exchange of interests. With the chip bill as the locomotive, the huge science bill was passed together.
In recent years, in order to reverse the competitive disadvantage of the chip industry in the world, the United States has acted arbitrarily to suppress the development of chip industry in other countries.
"First, restrict China's access to and development of advanced chip manufacturing and design technologies through bilateral or multilateral means. For example, put pressure on the Dutch government to ask ASMA, the world's largest lithographic machine enterprise, to expand the scope of its sales ban to China; and put together the so-called 'chip Quartet' (the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China) To engage in "semiconductor barriers" that exclude Chinese Mainland; To restrict Huawei's business activities in the world and "choke" its manufacturing to achieve the goal of abolishing its advanced chip design capability. The second is to coerce and try to control the leading enterprises in the semiconductor industry. For example, enterprises such as TSMC, Samsung Electronics, micron technology, Western Digital, Lianhua electronics, SK Hynix and Sun tech electronics are required to hand over semiconductor supply chain data, and enterprises such as TSMC are forced to invest and set up factories in the United States. " Feng Weijiang believes that these bullying acts have impacted the stability of the global chip industry chain and supply chain, disrupted market expectations, reduced the confidence and level of industry investment, increased the cost and risk of industry production and operation, copied a relatively advanced chip manufacturing industry for the United States at the expense of the global efficiency and profits of multinational enterprises in the semiconductor field, and hindered the innovation and development of the global semiconductor industry.
Destroy the chip supply chain
The US "Capitol Hill" believes that given that enterprises need a long time to build new facilities and increase production, the bill is unlikely to have an immediate practical effect on the domestic supply chain of the United States.
"Chip R & D itself is a time-consuming and laborious process, and it is not achieved overnight. After the implementation of the bill, it may not have a significant impact on the development of the chip industry in the United States in the short term. The specific effect remains to be observed and is full of uncertainty. The large-scale subsidy of the United States for chips is also a behavior that distorts the market rules, which may eventually lead to the surplus of the chip industry and even force the replacement of chips to be sold Now. " Jiang Tianjiao said that at the time of the rise of the semiconductor industry, the United States once almost covered all the global semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Today, the United States has only 12% of global semiconductor production capacity. This huge contrast has become an important reason for some people in the United States to try to reshape their core position in the global semiconductor manufacturing field through the bill, and then curb the development of China's semiconductor industry. However, the root cause of the decline of the US semiconductor manufacturing industry lies in itself. To curb, deprive and damage the legitimate development rights and interests of other countries will only harm others and ourselves.
According to the analysis of the center for strategic international studies, a us think tank, in the complex and highly interdependent global value chain, the semiconductor enterprises of the United States and China have long been deeply integrated. To fully localize the supply chain, it will pay a huge economic and technological cost. Therefore, it is very impractical for the global semiconductor industry to completely "decouple".
Peter wen nick, CEO of ASMC, recently warned: "the world cannot ignore the fact that the semiconductor manufacturing capacity of Chinese Mainland is crucial to meet the global market demand."
How should China respond to the hostile pressure of the United States on China's chip manufacturing industry?
"As far as the chip industry itself is concerned, China should continue to increase its investment in advanced chip manufacturing and design technology." Feng Weijiang pointed out that China should pay more attention to the "science" part of the bill, pay close attention to the progress of Frontier Science and technology fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics and quantum computing, which are mainly funded by the bill, pay attention to the guiding role of "competition policy" rather than "industrial policy" in these fields, and vigorously encourage scientific and technological progress and its support for advanced technology industries.
"The United States has always claimed to be a supporter and defender of the free market concept, and has even used this as an excuse to attack and smear other countries. Now, in order to maintain its hegemony, the United States has used this act to let many international semiconductor enterprises choose sides, which shows its hypocrisy." Jiang Tianjiao believes that, on the one hand, China should, through various means, expose and criticize the hegemonic acts of the United States that violate the market law and undermine the global chip supply chain, so as to win more support and cooperation from the international community; On the other hand, China should maintain its strategic strength, more respect the laws of the market and industry, strive to promote scientific and Technological Development and industrial progress, and continue to increase efforts to support the development of the semiconductor industry.
Source:People's Daily Overseas Edition
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