Pay attention to the port cargo pile! Why is the "supply chain crisis" in the United States difficult to solve?

Recently, the phenomenon of "mountains of containers" in American ports has become the focus of attention, and the problem of American supply chain has also attracted extensive attention. Los Angeles port and Long Beach port are the two busiest ports in the United States. About 40% of containers entering the United States need to pass through one of these two ports, which are only about two nautical miles apart. At the two ports, there are still many cargo ships waiting in line to enter the port, and about 200000 containers containing goods are stacked in the two ports. Many containers are loaded with parts and raw materials required by American factories to produce products at home.

According to the information released by the port of Los Angeles, on October 20 local time, there were 24 cargo ships in the port and 11 cargo ships waiting in line to enter the port. But the containers unloaded from the ship have filled the dock.

The same is true of the Long Beach port adjacent to the port of Los Angeles, where a large number of containers are stacked in the distribution center.

Jean cerroca, executive director of Los Angeles port, told reporters: "the goods have been detained for a long time. We must transport these goods as soon as possible."

John Pocari, special envoy for ports of the supply chain disruption task force, said: "I think every link of the supply chain in Southern California is very tense now, at least in the past year and a half. This is not just the case in Southern California. It is worse than this. It is a national phenomenon. There are not enough container chassis and enough truck drivers to ensure the actual operation of the port, which affects the work of the port. We are paying close attention to this situation Not seen. "

Containers piled up in the port and could not be transported away, so ships who wanted to enter the port outside the port had to wait in line. On the sea outside Long Beach port, only Huntington Beach, there were more than a dozen cargo ships waiting to enter the port.

25% of the goods have been stagnant for at least 13 days

It is understood that at present, the average waiting time for ships to dock at these two ports is about 10 days, and 25% of the goods have stagnated on the wharf for 13 days or more. When the goods are unloaded, the empty containers will be parked in the port for a week or more before they can be taken away.

In the middle of this month, the Biden administration announced that the ports of Los Angeles and long beach will operate 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, in order to solve the problem of port cargo congestion, and allow local cargo trucks in the United States to transport goods at night without traffic congestion. So is all-weather operation effective in alleviating port congestion?

Entrance all day long, but covid-19 trucks are not fully loaded. The reason for this is that the shortage of skilled dockers, truck drivers and railway workers to unload containers is due to the fact that the number of truck drivers in the United States has increased by 30% before the new crown. The economic burden is heavy on the one hand, as the economy is heavy, as a result of the heavy workload of the Long Beach Truck Association. At the same time, the unemployment relief policy in the United States during the epidemic has made many working people inert. This phenomenon is more obvious in more tired jobs such as ports. In August this year, nearly 4.3 million workers resigned in the United States, the most of them from the trade and transportation industry.

Josie Sheffield, director of the transportation and logistics center of MIT, said that most of the similar blue collar jobs in the truck transportation and construction industries are not interesting. They are hard work. Many of these people will not pursue income maximization. When their income reaches a certain level, they feel that they have earned enough money, so they stay at home. They prefer to stay with their families as long as they can Earn enough money to pay rent, tuition and other necessary expenses, and they are unwilling to work beyond their income level. This has been repeatedly proved that when the wages of truck drivers and other industries are increased, the opposite happens, and the shortage becomes worse.

We can't find enough truck drivers, even if the port operates around the clock, it can't solve the problem for a while. As early as June this year, the U.S. government set up a supply chain interruption task force to try to solve the supply problems in transportation, food processing, semiconductor and other fields. However, four months later, there is no sign of improvement in port congestion in the United States. Some experts predict that, The problem of shipping congestion in the United States may continue until 2022, and the closely related supply chain problem will continue.

Panic ordering exacerbated the supply chain crisis

Due to the huge gap in the transportation industry, a large number of goods were stranded in the port and could not enter the market. Industry insiders said that the supply chain crisis led to insufficient supply and over ordering by American retailers and manufacturers due to panic, which further exacerbated the supply chain crisis and led to a vicious cycle.

According to the US consumer news and business channel reported on the 20th, the CEO of a US supply chain technology company said that due to the panic of the large-scale supply chain crisis, retailers and manufacturers began to over order or place orders too early, which made the supply chain crisis worse.

The continuous supply chain crisis has led to soaring prices in the United States for some time. According to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% month on month in September, 5.4% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase has exceeded 5% for five consecutive months. With the approaching of the traditional holiday in the United States, people in the supply chain industry have warned that there may be a large-scale supply interruption and soaring prices.

Clothing, sports, baby and other supplies are in short supply online

With the approaching holidays at the end of the year and strong demand, the problem of commodity shortage in the United States has spread from physical stores to online platforms. The Atlantic magazine recently published an article entitled "the United States lacks everything". The article said that the current economic situation in the United States is that an hour's work has become a long journey of hours.

It is reported that a software manufacturer that tracks e-commerce purchases said that the proportion of out of stock of some specific commodities increased by 300% this year compared with 2020. The data show that clothing, sporting goods, baby products and electronic products are not in demand on the Internet. A report predicts that there will be a shortage of online goods with the increase of consumer demand and the coming holiday The problem could get worse.

The report also said that a market survey showed that due to the continuous supply chain crisis, some toys and other products have been sold out, and some consumers are worried about whether they can buy the required goods before the holiday. In addition, about two-thirds of consumers expect that prices will rise when the holiday comes this year.

US Secretary of transportation: supply chain problems will continue until next year

U.S. supply chain is tight, port goods are overstocked, and market goods are in short supply. The situation is deteriorating and cannot be effectively alleviated. On the 17th of this month, U.S. Transportation Secretary boutiger said that the supply chain problems facing the United States will continue until 2022. For the reasons for the blocked operation of the supply chain, boutiger attributed it to "the current extremely strong demand in the United States has exacerbated the supply tension" He said that the record level of social demand has raised retail prices and made transportation facilities in the United States unable to meet these needs.

For butijig's remarks, some analysts pointed out that no matter how he "beautifies the causes of the U.S. supply chain crisis", the crisis will continue to deteriorate. At that time, there will be a "shortage of everything" in the United States, and soaring prices will continue to push up the U.S. inflation level. These problems will not be solved overnight.

"The United States lacks everything" many factors lead to tension

As for the reasons for the current "lack of everything in the United States", the reports and analysis of the U.S. media pointed out that a series of direct and indirect factors such as shortage of manpower in relevant industries, weak epidemic prevention and control, problems of the U.S. economic structure and politicization of the epidemic have led to the emergence of the supply chain crisis.

CNN and other U.S. media reported that the current problem is not just the backlog of port goods and production affected by the serious epidemic. The continuous shortage of manpower in relevant industries is also an important reason. At present, the number of drivers in the U.S. truck freight industry has reached 80000, a new high, a significant increase of 30% compared with that before the epidemic. The report also said that there is a lack of relevant manufacturing industries in the United States It is also one of the fundamental reasons.

At the same time, some analysts pointed out that the U.S. government's epidemic control is weak, trying to politicize the epidemic prevention and control, shift the responsibility, take measures including suppressing other countries' science and technology enterprises, distort the supply chain relationship, and finally have a negative impact on itself.

The International Monetary Fund has also recently issued a warning on the relevant situation.

Gita Gopinat, chief economist of the IMF, said he saw a mismatch between supply and demand. This mismatch has been going on for a long time, because COVID-19 has been in a very long time. So, despite the rebound in demand, the supply is not so fast, and the combination of these two has led to high inflation, which has been in the price of commodities. We have seen this in the problem of tight supply chain. His expectation is that some inflation will continue until next year. He has never seen such a recovery. The labor market is short, the unemployment rate remains high, and the port cannot unload container ships. Therefore, this is very unique and must be particularly vigilant.

"Beige book" shows that economic growth in some parts of the United States has slowed down

The novel coronavirus pneumonia released by the Federal Reserve on 20 may be affected by factors such as supply chain disruption, labor shortage and uncertainty of new crown pneumonia. Some reports are based on the latest findings of 12 regional reserve banks in New York.

Although the U.S. job market continues to grow moderately, labor shortage limits the growth rate, and many retail, leisure tourism and manufacturing enterprises are forced to reduce production. Supply chain interruption and labor shortage lead to an increase in input costs in various industries, including a significant increase in steel, electronic components and material flow costs. Many enterprises alleviate cost pressure by raising product prices.

Source: CCTV news

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