Pay attention to how much more China will pay for the introduction of carbon tariffs in Europe and the United States?

"On climate change, you need to know two figures: the first is 51 billion and the second is 0.51 billion, which is the approximate ton of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere every year." 0 "is the goal we need to achieve."

Energy conservation and emission reduction has become a global consensus. At present, more than 130 countries, including China, have put forward the goal of carbon neutrality and climate.

In fact, carbon neutralization is not only an environmental issue, but also a trade issue.

On July 14, 2021, the European Commission officially put forward a package of environmental protection proposals to ensure that the EU's greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will be reduced by at least 55% compared with 1990, including the establishment of the EU's "carbon border adjustment mechanism", i.e. carbon tariff.

Since the Biden administration came to power, the United States has returned to the Paris Agreement, vigorously developed new energy, and published a draft legislation called the fair transformation and competition act of 2021, advocating the imposition of carbon tariffs on imported carbon intensive goods.

This means that the US position on carbon tariffs has changed significantly. Subsequently, the softening of the attitude of Britain, Canada, Japan and other countries towards carbon tariffs means that the possibility of developed countries forming a carbon tariff consensus and taking collective action will greatly increase in the future.

Developed countries impose carbon tariffs for two reasons: one is to stop carbon leakage, the other is to create a fair competitive environment.

Developed countries say that the carbon tax system leads to the rise of enterprise costs, drives the rise of product prices and weakens the international competitiveness of products in developed countries. Only the implementation of carbon tariffs can eliminate the unfairness caused by different policies.

These reasons ignore a basic fact: developed countries are developed countries. In the process of industrialization, they do not have the so-called carbon tariff system to restrict them, and wantonly enjoy free carbon emissions. But now, developed countries have turned to carbon tariffs to restrict the development of emerging economies, completely ignoring the development reality of developing countries.

Moreover, it is the transfer of high energy consuming industries from developed countries to developing countries that leads to a large number of carbon emissions.

Once the carbon tariff is levied, China's high-carbon industry will bear the brunt. By 2019, China has the largest carbon emission in the world, up to 10.17 billion tons, accounting for 27.92% of the global carbon emission.

In terms of export structure, in 2020, China's total exports of machinery and transportation equipment reached US $1258.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and the proportion of machinery and transportation equipment in exports reached 48.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over 2019;

The export volume of spinning fabrics reached 154.186 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 28.9%; Metal products also achieved an increase of 6.1%. Mechanical equipment, textiles and metal products are the so-called high carbon products.

The characteristics of export object and export structure mean that the implementation of carbon tariff will directly increase the production cost of exported high carbon products. When the profit space of high-carbon industry is compressed, the original capital of domestic high-carbon industry will flow to low-carbon industry, which will weaken China's export competitiveness and inhibit China's export growth.

Goldman Sachs predicts that if a carbon tax of US $100 / T Co ν is levied on the whole carbon footprint, China's total exports to the EU may be subject to a carbon border regulation tax of up to US $35 billion per year! The tax accounts for about 7.7% of China's annual total exports to the EU!

Facing the approaching carbon tariff, what China should do most is to vigorously promote low-carbon emission reduction and change the mode of economic and foreign trade growth. From the perspective of application field, in the future, the development trend of low-carbon technology will focus on the three directions of "low-carbon energy, decarbonization of production and low-carbon industry".

Source: prospective online and external markets

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